2016/03/11 TrendView VIDEO: Global View
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, March 11, 2016
Global View: All Markets
As we noted in the Equities’ Goldilocks Psychology post last weekend, the US equities are definitely bi-polar now. Nothing could illustrate that better than the response to the ECB’s major Quantitative Easing (QE) acceleration and somewhat surprising base rate cut to 0.00% (from 0.05%) along with the expected cut in the Deposit Rate to -0.40% (from -0.30%.) And in the overnight electronic trade while the ECB press conference was in progress the March S&P 500 future actually traded up to the low end of the prominent 2,010-20 resistance. Yet there was a fly in the ointment in the form of the downbeat assessment once again leading to more concern than confidence. That left the market swinging all the way down below interim 1,995 area and 1,986 supports to the far more major 1,975-70 that it failed to test earlier this week… likely due to that very ECB accommodation anticipation.
It has fully recovered within the ‘Goldilocks’ psychology that is likely already anticipating that the FOMC will be on hold next Wednesday. Yet, there is a lesson from yesterday that reinforces quite a bit of what we have been saying for months now on the overall equities psychology turning more bearish. Much like the Santa Claus (or Santa Portfolio manager as we prefer to call it) psychology holding the equities up late last year until the carnage when it lapsed, the ‘Goldilocks’ psychology is also likely a limited affair with more trouble waiting on the other side. And Thursday’s sharp selloff is a reminder of what we have said on the broader background being a brewing crisis that is near to being actualized.
As noted in Fear & Loathing in Marketland on February 9th (with underlines):
The next financial crisis will occur when the investment and portfolio management community (and ultimately the investing public) realizes that the central banks alone cannot restore the robust growth from prior to the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) quite a few of aspects noted above along with still weak economic data overall. And it was a much more subdued economic data and financial speeches day today, not impacting trends very much.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 03:45 and intermediate term view at 06:30, with OTHER equities from 09:00, GOVVIES beginning at 12:45 (with the BUND FUTURE at 16:30 including implications of Tuesday’s expiration rollover) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 20:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 23:15 EUROPE at 24:45 and ASIA at 27:15, followed by only mention of the CROSS RATES at 30:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 34:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2016/03/15 TrendView VIDEO: Global View
2016/03/15 TrendView VIDEO: Global View
© 2016 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, March 15, 2016
As we noted in the Equities’ Goldilocks Psychology post a week-and-a-half ago, US equities are definitely bi-polar now. Nothing could illustrate that better than the response to the ECB’s major Quantitative Easing (QE) acceleration and somewhat surprising base rate cut to 0.00%. As all of that is explored in last Friday morning’s Global View TrendView video post and the Market Observations below the video that were updated over the weekend, we refer you back to those for more specifics. Suffice to say that the ‘received wisdom’ on what that ECB influence would mean was substantially rejected by the markets.
As discussed in the Friday post Market Observations and explored again in this morning’s video analysis, the key was US dollar weakness and not euro strength. There was also still the matter of how disappointment with a key aspect of the ECB indications (i.e. no further rate cuts) still left the door open to significant US equities strength. That was on the continued anticipation of further central bank accommodation this week. Yet so far the Bank of Japan has disappointed. And the best that can be expected from the FOMC is to remain somewhat accommodative rather than hike rates on Wednesday afternoon.
Even the response to ECB’s rather aggressive accommodation acceleration suggested reaching a point that we have been anticipating for a while: the central banks are nearing the endgame of their ability to influence the general economic psychology and markets. This is especially important after BoJ expressed concern over the economic weakness yet failed to take any further steps this morning. That is reasonable in the face of mounting skepticism on zero or negative interest rates. More on that later. Yet what we reassert from last year and especially our Fear & Loathing in Marketland post on February 9th is this:
The next financial crisis will occur when the investment and portfolio management community (and ultimately the investing public) realizes that the central banks alone cannot restore the robust growth from prior to the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) just how light economic data releases have been of late, and how weak the US Retail Sales data was this morning.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 04:00 and intermediate term view at 08:15, with OTHER equities from 11:00, GOVVIES beginning at 14:00 (with the BUND FUTURE at 16:45 including implications of last Tuesday’s expiration rollover) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 19:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 22:45 EUROPE at 24:30 and ASIA at 27:15, followed by only mention of the CROSS RATES at 29:15 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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