2016/05/05 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, May 5, 2016 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

The central banks are obviously hitting the end of the (very distended) line with the move into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy.) On the ‘macro’ front the first week of May brings important data and almost final corporate earnings. Yet even more critical coming out of last week were indications of whether central bank influence was still sufficient to buoy US equities at the top of a very significant rally. That was accentuated by June S&P 500 future selling off from 2,103-10 two weeks ago after what was a still very accommodative ECB press conference, with even more ineffective central bank influence on the BoJ’s refusal to dive deeper into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) last Thursday morning.

And the late week market failure after a still very accommodative FOMC statement on Wednesday afternoon meant the short-term Evolutionary Trend View was weak (amply illustrated by the initial upper left chart.) Note the DOWN Breaks from multiple projections up near the 2,078 area. While those are indeed short term, they are also very near the far more major 2,078 major weekly channel UP Break that appears to have been Negated by that recent weakness.

This is all that much more important in the context of other extensive background factors which indicate the potential for recent aggressive trend reversals to repeat if US equities weaken much further from current levels. All that additional background is available in previous posts, like last Thursday morning’s Special Alert: Equities Critical. And the activity in other asset classes was most prominent in foreign exchange, where US Dollar Index violated the .9325 Tolerance of important .9400-.9350 support. Yet that was not on typical euro strength, but sharp weakness of USD/JPY after BoJ’s ‘no action’. Of course, all of that is also consistent with the govvies return to strength last week after several weeks of atypical weakness on overall disappointing economic data.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion on the factors noted above as well as some of the key specifics of economic data that actually strengthened a bit in the US but with more weakness out of China and the UK. We suggest you listen to the early part for the summary on the central bank psychology failure.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 03:30 and intermediate term view at 07:45, with OTHER equities from 11:30, GOVVIES beginning at 16:30 (with the BUND FUTURE at 19:00 including implications of the early March expiration rollover) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 21:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 24:00 EUROPE at 25:30 and ASIA at 27:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 30:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 34:45. As this a longer than usual video analysis, we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.                                                                                                   Read more...