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2016/06/07 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

June 7, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/06/07 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, June 7, 2016 (early)

[GENERAL UPDATE Market Observations updated Wednesday morning]

Global View: All Markets

We seem to have an answer for the good question we posed Monday on whether the US equities could go from a “good news is good news” market to a “bad news is good news” market in less than one trading session if a key data set gets weak enough fast enough? The answer is “yes.” Friday’s very weak +38,000 US Nonfarm Payrolls number saw the US equities hold key lower support and rebound nicely on the day. Fed Chair Yellen’s Monday speech responded to the weaker than expected report with a more circumspect view of when any future FOMC rate hike might take place. That seems enough for now to keep the bulls in control of the trend.

As it had been obvious of late that the ‘Normalcy Bias’ Bunch at the Fed were back in full force after previous somewhat stronger US economic data, it was interesting to see the hawks back on their heels (or more appropriately have their wings clipped?) Ms. Yellen has played the conciliator before. As such, her dovish removal of the “in coming months” language from the likely horizon for the next possible FOMC hike was no surprise.

Of course, both the very weak US Nonfarm Payrolls number and subsequent expected softening of the Fed’s rate hike view was good for the govvies and quite a burden for the US dollar. When the equities are rallying on central bank-driven “bad news is good news” psychology, the govvies can also be inspired by weak data. There is no rigid requirement that they trend in opposite directions. The question for the equities now becomes just how much ‘bad’ news is still ‘good’ news? Central bank accommodation can help drive a ‘risk-on’ chase for yield. Yet, if the data becomes too much weaker, equities can suffer from the diminished economic expectations. We saw this back in August and again in January. And it gets back to the premise we have stated many times (see below.)

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above as well as the mixed nature of all of the recent data. It also mentions the other key data this week that includes important Trade Balances that work hand-in-glove with Wednesday morning’s OECD Composite Leading Indicators.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE ‘Quick Take’ up to 02:30 followed by the short-term at 04:45 and intermediate term view at 06:00, with OTHER equities from 09:15, GOVVIES beginning at 12:30 (with SEPTEMBER BUND FUTURE at 15:15 including implications of expiration rollovers) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 17:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:15 EUROPE at 22:00 and ASIA at 24:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 30:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis that is most relevant for you.

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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.

2016/06/01 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

June 2, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/06/01 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, June 1, 2016 (late)

[GENERAL UPDATE Market Observations updated Friday pre-US Employment report]

Global View: All Markets

As has been obvious of late, the ‘Normalcy Bias’ Bunch at the Fed are back in full force after recent somewhat stronger than expected US economic data. While they might be entitled to still speak of more FOMC rate hikes this year, they seem charged up about the aggressive nature of what is necessary. That is in spite of significant weakness in quite a bit of the global economic data, and now even a bit of US data. That is very important due to the established nature of the impact of weaker data once the Fed seems to be predisposed to hike the US base rate. Think about last September and the fallout from global weakness in January.

This is not to suggest that the equities are that vulnerable right now. They were already on weaker footing on the rally into a hawkish tone (without a hike) at the mid-September FOMC meeting, and once again due to the end of year weakening after the seasonal Santa Claus Rally. However, key leader June S&P 500 future is in a very fraught ‘gray area’ right now prior to the ECB Thursday, and global Services PMI’s and US Employment on Friday.

Whichever way it comes out of its critical range will have implications for its overall trend. That will of course not just impact the other ‘weak sister’ equities, but also likely the govvies and foreign exchange. To cut to the chase, will the June S&P 500 future ‘re-fail’ back below the 2,078-75 resistance it pushed back above just last week? Or will it finally power up through the 2,105 April 20^th trading high of the current rally from the major mid-February low? It is a very big decision either way from a relatively narrow range.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above as well as key end-of-month May data into the top of June coming in very mixed. Things like better-than-expected US Income and Spending look very good, yet a whole range of other economic data has been weaker-than-expected. And the OECD Q1 International Trade statistics this morning remained very troubling, as the global slowdown ‘accelerated’ across all regions and most countries. Not good.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE ‘Quick Take’ up to 02:20 followed by the short-term at 04:00 and intermediate term view at 05:30, with OTHER equities from 08:15, GOVVIES beginning at 11:45 (with the BUND FUTURE at 13:15 including implications of the early March expiration rollover) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 15:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 17:45 EUROPE at 19:45 and ASIA at 22:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 30:15. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis that is most relevant.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, analysis, Asia, Australia, bias, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, China, comments, confidence, confluence, CPI, crude, Crude Oil, currency, Dallas, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, hawk, Indicators, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, oil, Pound, QE, redux, Retail, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yellen put, Yen

2016/05/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

May 26, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/05/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, May 26, 2016 (early)

[GENERAL UPDATE Market Observations refreshed after Monday Asian and European Closes]

Global View: All Markets

As noted earlier this week, the ‘Normalcy Bias’ Bunch at the Fed are back in full force after the recent somewhat stronger than expected US economic data. While they might be entitled to still speak of more FOMC rate hikes this year, they seem charged up about the aggressive nature of what is necessary. That is spite of significant weakness in quite a bit of the global economic data. As a sign of that, just look at the global Advanced PMI’s for Manufacturing on Monday and Services on Wednesday. Outside of Germany, those were fairly disappointing indications (even including the US.) Even this morning’s totally over-the-top headline US Durable Goods Orders data turns out to be based on very strong (yet erratic) airplane orders.

The subsets beginning with the Ex-Transportation figure tell a different story. Especially the Non-Defense Capital Goods Order ex-Aircraft figures maintained the weakness since the top of the year. That is the proxy for business investment, and the April number coming in at -0.80% (versus a +0.30% estimate) highlights a lack of business investment. And that is ultimately the font from which stronger hiring and wages must flow.

That said, any positive data of the sort the US has seen of late seems to vindicate the hawks at the Fed for now. Even if their latest pronouncements on at least two and maybe three more rate increases this year are more ‘data dependent’ than they would like to admit, the next rate move now being up seems to be the prevailing psychology. In a world that previously had a ‘Fear of Fed’, it finally seems that ‘good news is good news’!

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above as well as key end-of-month data coming Friday right before the long holiday weekends in the UK and US. There has also been quite a bit of weak data elsewhere, even if that was recently buffered by surprisingly (even suspiciously) strong Japanese GDP. There was also strength in UK Employment figures in spite of weak CBI Trends Total Orders and this morning’s UK GDP and its subsets (especially Trade.)

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE ‘Quick Take’ up to 02:00 followed by the short-term at 04:00 and intermediate term view at 06:15, with OTHER equities from 09:00, GOVVIES beginning at 11:45 (with the BUND FUTURE at 14:15 including implications of the early March expiration rollover) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 16:00. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:30 EUROPE at 20:30 and ASIA at 22:45, followed by the CROSS RATES at 26:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 30:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis that is most relevant.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, analysis, Asia, Australia, bias, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, China, comments, confluence, CPI, crude, Crude Oil, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, hawk, Holiday, IFO, Indicators, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, oil, PMI, Pound, QE, RBA, redux, Retail, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen, Yellen put, Yen, ZEW

2016/05/24 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

May 24, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/05/24 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, May 24, 2016 (early)

[BRIEF UPDATE Market Observations updated Wednesday morning]

Global View: All Markets

They’re baaack! The ‘Normalcy Bias’ Bunch at the Fed are back in full force after the recent somewhat stronger than expected US economic data. While they might be entitled to still speak of more FOMC rate hikes this year, they seem to be charged up about the aggressive nature of what is necessary. That is still in spite of significant weakness in quite a bit of the global economic data. As a sign of that, just look at the global Advanced Manufacturing PMI’s on Monday. Outside of Germany, those were some fairly disappointing indications (even including the US.)

Then there is the matter of international merchandise trade. Even the positive Japanese Trade Balance on Monday was on more significant weakness than already predicted in Imports compared to also weaker-than-expected Exports. This overall weakness in global trade has been apparent in almost all countries’ figures. It is also a key element of future weakness that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has warned about in all of its recent World Economic Outlooks. While the US may be attempting to lead the way higher on both economics and equity markets, the question now is whether it can do so on its own? Or will the global weakness be the more prominent influence?

There have been some highlights along the way (especially from the US.) Yet there have also been quite a few weak indications, not least of which on the Japanese All Industry Activity in spite of strong Leading Indicators. German ZEW Sentiment (the forward view) was also very weak. That said, the equities bears are going to be subject to quite a bit more central bank-speak this week, culminating with Fed Chair Yellen Friday morning.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above as well as key specifics of the US economic data that improved. There has also been quite a bit of weak economic data elsewhere, even if that was recently buffered by surprisingly (even suspiciously) strong Japanese GDP. There was also strength in UK Employment figures in spite of weak CBI Trends Total Orders.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE ‘Quick View’ up to 01:50 followed by the short-term at 04:00 and intermediate term view at 06:00, with OTHER equities from 09:30, GOVVIES beginning at 12:45 (with the BUND FUTURE at 15:15 including implications of the early March expiration rollover) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 17:30. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:45 EUROPE at 21:30 and ASIA at 24:30, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:00 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 31:45. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access analysis that is most relevant.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, analysis, Asia, Australia, bias, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, China, comments, confluence, CPI, crude, Crude Oil, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, durable, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, hawk, Indicators, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, minutes, NIKKEI, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, oil, PMI, Pound, QE, RBA, redux, Retail, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen put, Yen, ZEW

2016/05/19 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

May 20, 2016 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

2016/05/19 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, May 19, 2016 (late)

Global View: All Markets

It was a very interesting day-and-a-half in the wake of the FOMC minutes. It is almost bizarre (once again) that after the recent stronger US economic data of last Friday into Tuesday and right after the release of the more hawkish than expected FOMC meeting minutes (see our marked up version) the data should revert to some weakness. This is being reflected in another (albeit milder) form of the same market reactions seen after the hawkish mid-September major FOMC meeting. Undoubtedly, along with the FOMC, the markets will also continue to be ‘data dependent’.

The manifestation of that Thursday morning after Wednesday afternoon’s equities weakness that was accompanied by the govvies selloff was for the equities to weaken initially. While the govvies were being bolstered by the weak international economic data, the equities still managed to rally back late Thursday. This was especially interesting after so in the US after the Philly Fed Index, which points out the continued weakness in that sector, also noted in the FOMC minutes. The “Sell in May and go away” equities psychology we noted was just getting started in April is gaining more momentum.

In fact, the downside momentum on the current failure below 2,035-32 was not just a new six week trading low; it is also a fresh DOWN Break from a Head & Shoulders Top with a 2,035 Neckline today. That has a (minimum) downside Objective of 1,955. It doesn’t sound all that much further down considering both August-September and in January-February it had dropped as far as the low 1,800 area. Yet the dilemma for the bulls is that (as we noted prior to each of those previous selloffs) any failure too far below 2,000 tends to range down much further. That has been at least the 1,900 area as an interim target, with the mid-low 1,800 area the more likely support.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above as well as quite a bit of weak economic data. In spite of strong UK Employment figures, weak Chinese MNI and US Philly Fed are signs of weakness.

It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term at 02:45 and intermediate term view at 05:00, with OTHER equities from 09:30, GOVVIES beginning at 13:15 (with the BUND FUTURE at 15:15 including implications of the early March expiration rollover) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 17:15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE covers the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:00 EUROPE at 21:30 and ASIA at 24:15, followed by the CROSS RATES at 28:30 and a return to S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 32:00. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis that is most relevant for you.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged 2007, 2007 redux, 2016, analysis, Asia, Australia, bias, BoE, BoJ, bond, Bund, China, comments, confluence, CPI, crude, Crude Oil, currency, DAX, debt, Deflation, Disinflation, dollar, Draghi, ECB, economic, employment, equities, Euro, Europe, exports, Fed, fixed income, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, FTSE, GDP, Germany, Gilt, govvies, housing, Indicators, inflation, instability, interest, interest rate, Inventories, Japan, macro, macro-technical, Manufacturing, Michigan, MNI, NIKKEI, NIRP, normalcy, normalcy bias, normalize, oil, Philly, Pound, QE, redux, Retail, risk-off, risk-on, S&P 500, Services, T-note, technical, Trade, TREND, UK, US dollar, Yellen put, Yen

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2016/06/07 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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2016/05/19 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

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2016/06/07 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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2016/05/26 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

2016/05/24 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

2016/05/19 TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

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ROHR FT 2007 Déjà Vu Letter

ROHR FT ‘Medium’ Driver Letter

ROHR Financial Times ‘Risk’ Letter

Focused Rohr Expertise Centers

Rohr Alert!! Active S&P 500 views

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