▪ After all of the major divergences and what seem to be significant distortions in some cases, the trend decisions have all come around to being recalibrated at major supports and resistances. Both obvious and subtle fundamental influences are now likely to also play a role in what are likely to be definitive trend decisions. The most telling inferences to be drawn from the key decisions deserve immediate address; sometimes in the form of questions they raise.
▪ Are equities actually ready to rally from an already major rally since the March lows? We do not want to get entangled in the 'valuation' or 'ahead of itself (in the up trend)' discussion, as there is not necessarily any particular 'value' that can be ascribed to a trend from a purely technical perspective. Yet, within our 'macro' trend analysis, there is that key component which dictates there must be a least some reasonably credible fundamental rationale for any of the truly major technical projections, as otherwise they must be viewed as suspect. As we have recently revisited, this was the reason we were skeptical of the early 2008 equity market bottom.
