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2012/02/27: OGB Alive & Well and Perspective along with Weekly Calendar

February 27, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Our full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. There is also a bit more extensive than usual fundamental factor review this week. That is due to the ostensible finalization of a Greek debt deal now being approved by the German Parliament not seeming to affect trends to any great degree. If this is such a major success, why were the equities only marginally higher from Friday and stalling into resistance in the strong sister US once again?

And the OGB (Occupy Greek Budget) movement in Germany is on the move again. According to an excellent Financial Times article on that today, “German tax collection experts have volunteered to go to Greece…” Oh, Goody!! The discussion of has played down all of the acrimony since an earlier article reported on initial responses to similar suggestions in late January from Davos; especially note the comments elicited by the latter. Here’s the bottom line: Rigid implementation of agreed Greek reforms that include strict enforcement of tax regulations are the good intentions which are paving the path to Hell.

The 'hawks' seem oblivious to the degree to which Greece has already been the learning lab, and the lesson is that pro-cyclical austerity will not result in the narrowly calculated fiscal improvement. Even allowing it may be a necessary evil, as we’ve noted previous you'd think the folks who suffered the occupation of the Ruhr after WWI would be a bit more sensitive about how they went about proposing tax collection 'assistance'. We all know how well that episode worked out.

Why doesn't Greece just declare war on Germany? They could throw the contest after the first shot, and put in for ‘reconstruction’ support rather than try to cure such a hopelessly over-burdened balance sheet. (Please reference "The Mouse That Roared.")

And now (just now this afternoon in the US) we have Standard & Poors downgrading Greece to “Selective Default” and that seems to mean some of the actual debt has dropped to “D” ...for ‘Default’ due to the insertion of ‘collective action clauses’ on some outstanding Greek bonds.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged calendar, Crude Oil, economy, EFSF, equities, EU, European Debt-Dilemma, Fed, G20, government bond, linkedin, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/02/24: Quick Post: Knock-Knock-Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door

February 24, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

With due respect and apologies to Bob Dylan for borrowing the lyric, the equities everywhere would likely consider it ‘heavenly’ for the US laggard S&P 500 future to finally knock out the last of the resistance from last summer. And March S&P 500 future knocking on the door at 1,367 (major high from last May) is the last shoe to fall with the DJIA above 13,000 and March NASDAQ 100 future pushing through 2,600. As noted previous, if March S&P 500 future should exceed that old high by more than a few dollars for the weekly close, it is more than the next nominal $10 or $15 signal. Weekly oscillators and historic congestion point to something more on the order of the 1,400 area at a minimum.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged economic, economy, European Debt-Dilemma, Fed-speak, G20, govvies, Greece, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND

2012/02/23: Quick Post: Technical Projections and Comments Now Available

February 23, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Current Rohr Technical Projections - Key Levels & Select Comments (as of Wednesday’s US Close) are now available through the link in the right hand column. We have summarized some of the most interesting and telling tendencies below.

Somewhat more upbeat economic data assisting the equities has also been putting a bit of pressure on the US dollar and primary government bond markets. Yet they have also been quite resilient, not exhibiting any UP trend reversing effects just yet in govvies, even if the US Dollar Index failure below .7950 seems much more negative.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged economic, European Debt-Dilemma, government bond, Greece, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/02/21: Quick Post: Observations and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar Now Available

February 21, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. There is also a bit more extensive than usual fundamental factor review this week. That is due to the ostensible finalization of a Greek debt deal not seeming to affect trends to any great degree. If this is such a major success, why were the equities only marginally higher from Friday in the US, and the European stock markets lower?

Watch for what happens with the private bond holders (PSI), and especially next week's EU Summit where the actual funding commitments are supposed to be finalized. Wonder if they'll pull another one of those stunts where the other 'damaged' countries (Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland) are putting up money for Greece?

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged economic, European Debt-Dilemma, government bond, govvies, Greece, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/02/17: Quick Post: The Agony and Ecstaquities

February 17, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

There seems good reason for ecstatic extension of the Ecstaquities rally. Bears may still feel that headwinds into the middle of this year will be more than enough to reverse the current up trend. Yet the price activity of the past several days has been underpinned by what is now a full week of better than expected economic data.

The ‘Agony’ was Wednesday's sharp equities selloff from new highs for the current rally, which seemed to reinforce some "tired" trend indications. The inability of the March S&P 500 future to push through critical 1,350-55 resistance in the wake of such strong economic news and central bank largesse seemed an important ‘macro-technical’ failure. 

However, at the end of the day the potentially ‘toppy’ price activity in equities that even saw daily MACD’s mildly DOWN only left us with the classical consideration: “indicators are indicators” and always still require price movement confirmation. And in this case it was clear March S&P 500 future needed to post a daily Close back below the gap above the 1,329.50 previous high in the wake of the US Employment report. Too bad for the bears that yesterday's strong Australian Employment indications along with constructive US data just did not allow for any further pressure on the equities.

And that has continued this morning on the better-than-expected UK Retail Sales and Euro-zone Construction Output; from two of the key economies that are allegedly headed into recession! Not much for the bears to lean against.

So now what?

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged economic, government bond, govvies, linkedin, macro-technical, S&P 500, US Dollar Index
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