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2012/03/08: When is today not today? When it’s PSI participation results!

March 8, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Yes indeed, today is the deadline for the next European Sovereign Debt Crisis decision: PSI (Private Sector Involvement) decision on whether to participate in the ‘voluntary’ dilution of the value of their outstanding Greek bonds. Regardless of how that turns out, we must say it's refreshing to finally actually have a bona fide deadline of any sort for what has been the otherwise amorphous European success in simply "kicking the can down the road." And yet, in terms of its actual impact on the markets, it really isn't actually, officially today that counts…

…because the 20:00 GMT (15:00 EST; 14:00 CST) deadline for bondholders to decide is not the moment we will find out the actual results. Those will be announced Friday at 07:00 CET (Central European Time: 06:00 GMT; 01:00 EST; 00:00 CST.) While it is probably fair to allow some time to review the results after the formal deadline, this just shifts one more of the intensive late week influences we had highlighted at the top of the week for today into tomorrow into the last trading day of the week.

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged central bank, Credit event, ECB, economic, economy, Employment report, equities, European Debt-Dilemma, Fed, government bond, govvies, ISDA, Jack B. Show, LTRO, macro-technical, PSI, QE, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/03/07: Courtesy access to ‘Brief Update’ and extended discussion in new format

March 7, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet on the specific market comments in this post, because yesterday’s TrendView Brief Update was also actually very brief for a change. That is because the equities key technical indications were very well crystalized for the sharp failure yesterday after such a long churn to the upside. And we are referring you back to yesterday’s analysis because the levels and psychology explored there for the March S&P 500 future remain the same for the critical late week period.

And one of the reasons we did not post to the blog during the highly active market swings yesterday was that we felt the more critical decision will be made in the late part of this week. Yet not necessarily solely upon the market response to the US Employment report. As we noted in the title of Monday's post, “You better have ‘game’ prior to Friday…” (which was to say prior to Friday's US Employment influence.)

And why is that? Because of all the factors we have covered previous on the more critical nature of the next phase of the attempt to address the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. That is something we have explored at length in previous analysis. Any of our regular readers should have been ready for the potential market dislocation under the influence of (finally) a more definitive deadline for at least the current attempt to defuse any immediate sharp failure of those European rescue efforts.

Which gets us to the other reason we were not available to add another post to our already extensive observations in that area yesterday morning. In addition to all of our highly active institutional analysis and sharing our background thoughts on the blog, we have resurrected a previous media role that allows for more extensive, open-ended discussion of those factors.

And I am very excited once again about…

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Rohr Market Research

2012/03/05: You better have ‘game’ prior to Friday… Perspective from Weekly Calendar

March 5, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Our full calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. There is also a bit more intense than usual influence even prior to Friday’s US Employment report this month. With due respect for all that’s going on early in the week, it’s Thursday into Friday this week. All weeks tend to have a bit of natural bias toward late week decisions, due to the degree to which the weekly Close is more telling than early week activity.

However, due to the intense concentration of major economic data, central bank rate decision meetings and statements Thursday (including the ECB post-rate decision press conference), it is more intense this week that at any time in recent memory. That is due to a major decision on the European Sovereign Debt Crisis which must be finalized by Thursday. That's right, as incredible as it may seem after all of the success the powers-that-be-in Europe have achieved in kicking the can down the road, we actually have a bona fide critical decision horizon on the Greek Debt Deal on Thursday…

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged calendar, central bank, ECB, economic, Employment report, equities, European Debt-Dilemma, government bond, govvies, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/03/02: Quick Post: Déjà Vu on March S&P 500 future dip toward 1,367

March 2, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

To quote the immortal Yogi Berra, “It’s déjà vu all over again” as March S&P 500 future dips toward 1,367 this morning. Now what? That is not just a question on whether the market is going to generally go up or down from present levels. March S&P 500 future 1,367 is the extreme trading high from last May. As the NASDAQ 100 and DJIA have already been above equivalent highs over the past couple of weeks, any convincing escape of the lead contract S&P 500 future would represent a more decisive indication of bullish momentum.

As noted once again (after repeated earlier discussion of it) in Tuesday's TrendView BRIEF UPDATE (linked in Tuesday’s post) while previous violations of resistance indicated the next 15 points higher, much above 1,367 lead contract S&P 500 future would not have much resistance until the 1,400 area, and 1,430-1,440 above that.

And we are cutting directly to the technical trend chase today because we have reviewed all the heavy cross currents in the ‘bi-modal’ economic outlook and market influences in previous analyses and blog posts.

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged calendar, Crude Oil, economic, Employment report, equities, European Debt-Dilemma, government bond, govvies, Greece, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/02/28: Quick Post: Courtesy Access to Rohr Report ‘Brief Update’

February 28, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet today in this post, because the rest of it gets a bit circular and convoluted and a bit lengthier than usual in our ‘brief’ analysis. March S&P 500 future pushing above 1,367 but then getting stuck instead of exploding is a compelling sign of the “bi-modal” nature of the market psychology right now…

…which is also reinforced by the primary government bond markets trading at the highs of their current rallies at the same time. We have done chapter & verse in the past on the ability of govvies and equities to keep the bid together (like the linked extensive review from last May that notes some factors which are similar to today’s) for a longer period than many would normally expect. That said, the current intermarket activity is (in the words of renowned Chef Emeril Lagasse) “kicking it up” to a whole new level.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged calendar, economic, equities, European Debt-Dilemma, government bond, govvies, Greece, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND
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