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2012/07/16: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Fresh Tech Now Available

July 16, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available as well in the calendar section this week as well. The Summary Perspective on Key Influences will be posted later this evening, and we hope you find that useful as well.

 

 It’s another critical early- to mid-week decision horizon this week. Not to say that there are no important influences at the end of the week as well. Especially the extensive government bond auctions and political influences out of Europe on Thursday. Yet, Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Senate testimony Tuesday will likely be very important in light of the focus on the US as the only reasonably likely strong economic influence in the current global environment.  While we feel the optimists regarding immediate further QE are likely to be disappointed, it is still possible the equities will squeeze up into the early part of tomorrow’s testimony and Q&A. After that, the markets may well decide to get more aggressive in either direction.

And in any event that will be a major influence on the other asset classes as well.

 

General Market Observations

 

September S&P 500 future has already pushed back up into the more prominent congestion from last summer in the 1,350-55 range. Much below the 1,338 repeated Tolerance of that area will likely trigger another fairly aggressive selloff.

 

Thanks for your interest.

Rohr Market Research

2012/07/13: Quick Post: Courtesy ‘Market Alert’ on Equities only back up to key resistance… again

July 13, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Market Alert is a pointed discussion of the most critical short-term technical area being the 1,335-38 range. In other words, the (repeatedly violated) Tolerance of the September S&P 500 future key 1,350-55 resistance; which is the far more major trend decision area. And as impressive as the sustained rally appears today, once the bears were squeezed above 1,338 right after the Regular Trading Hours opening, there wasn't much left to say from a short-term technical perspective.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily make the equities bullish either because the 1,335-38 range is only an interim level after all. It will still take another sustained push above 1,350-55 to encourage the idea that the market is escaping to the upside. Otherwise it could all end up spilling back down from the same levels next week as occurred after Tuesday morning's announcement of the extension of the deadline on Spanish fiscal reform. As we noted at the time, that is a bit of a longer-term move. And while it seems constructive, the markets are ultimately looking for more immediate and extensive European action on other critical items.

And both before and after that this week, there were other critical items… 

Read more...

Rohr Market Research

2012/07/10: Quick Post: Courtesy ‘Market Alert’ on Equities back up to key resistance

July 10, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Market Alert is a pointed discussion of the most recent Euro-zone moves only putting the September S&P 500 future back up to key 1,350-55 resistance. That is of course very important, because the extension of the deadline for Spanish fiscal reform is a bit of a longer-term move. And while it seems constructive, the markets are ultimately looking for more immediate and extensive European action on other critical items.

Those include a more realistic assessment and address of the full extent of Spanish bank recapitalization. There is also the issue of a pan-European banking regulator that now stretched out into not just late this year or early next, but the second half of 2013. It seems the Europeans just haven’t learned the lesson of the importance of timely action as well as any steps being seen as effective in the first place.

There are also the technical trend considerations in the other key asset class…

Read more...

Rohr Market Research

2012/07/05: Perspective prep still necessary awaiting ECB’s Draghi

July 5, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Summary Perspective in the sidebar are still very relevant this week, because as we noted at the top of the week it’s all about Thursday and Friday. US Employment and other important economic data will be the coda to whatever transpires today. Yet today sees such an incredible combination of factors related to the success or failure of last week’s European Summit triumphal ‘agreement’ that it just cannot be ignored as the potential turning point for the market trend this week.

We will have much more to say on that below, yet for now will take the unusual step of moving right to the market comment prior to the balance of the background on Europe.

Read more...

Rohr Market Research

2012/06/29: Quick Post: Germany saves world… Maybe

June 29, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update was an extended discussion of the various price whipsaws back to psychologically important areas after the Euro-zone love fest into this morning. In fact, while a bit of that is follow-up on the other asset classes (i.e. outside of equities), the psychology and technical trend structure are also right back into the key US levels.

And as it relates to the key September S&P 500 future, the replay is almost exactly the same as the optimistic run-up into the FOMC meeting last week. It all seems consistent with market reactions to previous Euro-zone grand bargain announcements, and Yankees Manager and Malaprop Master Yogi Berra’s observation, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”

Yet, as has been typical, the European moves raise as many questions as they address…

Read more...

Rohr Market Research
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