© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Brief Update is a pointed discussion of some significant points in the quantitative easing debate. As we have noted in previous posts, we feel QE is the Opiate of the Perma-Bulls. We will have more for you on that soon.

However, in the meantime it would seem that whatever Mr. Bernanke has to say today must be respected as a potential short term influence on the markets. And that is in spite of the far greater influence that will likely come from the next steps (for better or worse)in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. And that reaches a truly critical horizon into the ECB press conference and meeting between German Chancellor Merkel and Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy… both of which are coincidentally (or not) next Thursday.

In the meantime, we should also not lose interest after Chairman Bernanke is done speaking just because US Labor Day holiday weekend looms. Given the prominence of the overall global situation and current critical phase of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis evolution, we had suggested earlier this week IMF head Lagarde’s speech this afternoon(13:30 CDT; 14:30 EDT; 18:30 GMT) might be as important as what Mr. Bernanke has to saythis morning. We will certainly still be paying attention later on today.

In the meantime enjoy the read, and our US readers should also have a great holiday weekend.

Thanks for your interest.

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column. The Summary Perspective on Key Influences and Weekly Reports & Events Calendar are also already posted, and we hope you find those useful as well.

Of course, the overriding (some would say ‘overbearing’) presence of the Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow has kept the markets mostly on hold until today(Thursday.) It seems the equities are finally started to grasp the idea that Sugar Daddy Ben might not have any more candy to dispense as early as tomorrow. “We have steps we can take if conditions deteriorate” options are really not quite the same as the immediate sugar rush.

So while the “To QE or not to QE…” deliberation leaves quite a few folks with a strong feeling “that is the question”…

…as regular readers know, we think that even any actual QE is so much falderal regarding actual assistance for the real economy. Yet it must still be watched closely for the potential ‘knee jerk” impact on the near term trend; such as a temporary boost it might provide equities and commodities, and pressure it brings onto the core government bonds and US dollar.

Or vice versa if not, as we are also fairly sure that aside from any new, subtle, technical ‘twist’ (such as more of the same one they are currently pursuing), Fed Chairman Bernanke will have nothing to offer. While there are many possible permutations of the forces behind this, two primary reasons stand out. The first is the sheer buoyancy of the equities.

While expressing rightful concern over the US economy, he will likely be rue to use precious monetary ammunition with the S&P 500 in the 1,400 area. He is well aware that any crisis that causes a rapid equities selloff will require a QE response. Its effectiveness will be quite a bit more problematic if a round used up near the highs had proven ineffective.Secondly, much more of the reason for any crisis rests with the European political class right now. As such, it is important for the Fed to judge just how well or poorly that is going by the time of the ECB meeting next week.

And it is no small coincidence (or not) that ECB President Draghi cancelled his Saturday Jackson Hole speech. What exactly does “Too heavy a workload” back in Europe mean? Progress? Contentious political blockages? As close as we will get for now is Madame Lagarde’s speech on Friday. Which raises the question of how to commit to a major trend view this week? Not likely, even under the influence of whatever the good Chairman has to say tomorrow. More likely the ECB meeting and press conference that coincidentally (or not) is the same day as the Merkel-Rajoy meeting next Thursday is the real key to any extended trend…

…with ad hoc pronouncements from the German political class and others as a significant short term influence into next week.

Love these ‘politico’-economic markets!!

Thanks for your interest.

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as yesterday’s post. Along with that the Weekly Summary Perspective on Key Influences is available through the link in the right hand column, joining yesterday’s Weekly Report & Event Calendar.

All we can say is Europe’s latest round of ’Kick the Can’ still seems to be working very well.  And yet some reservations are turning up regarding the situation in Spain. We will have more to say on that very soon, along with quite a few other factors that are less than constructive in spite of the current hopeful central-bank psychology.

And that is especially so in light of all the anticipation into the Jackson Hole Central Bank QE-athon on Friday. Now that Signore Draghi has (curiously) cancelled his Saturday speech out there, even more emphasis will be placed on whatever Mr. Bernanke has to say. As regular readers know, we think all of that is so much falderal regarding any actualassistance for the real economy.

Yet incremental influences on the Federal Reserve psychology must still be watched closely for the potential ‘knee jerk” impact on the near term trend; such as any possible temporary boost it might provide both equities and commodities. And of course that includes the Beige Book which we are about to see.

For anyone interested in a glimpse at our broader contrarian psychology on that, please review our opening comments in the Weekly Summary Perspective. In addition to being contrarian on expecting any action from Mr. Bernanke, we still feel that the entire focus on what the US central bank does is misguided: this is all about Europe, and it is no surprise to long-term observers that the Spanish regions are now becoming a more acute issuealong with the central government balance and the banks.

And yet, the equities seem to remain resilient for now.These psychological “bad news is good news” phases are always so interesting!!

Thanks for your interest.

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Just back in today, and the Big Apple was a blast! I know a lot of Midwesterners find it a bit gritty and WAAAAAY too frenetic. Maybe it’s just because I’m a particularly high strung Midwesterner that I find its energy and attractions far outweigh the intensity and hustle. I suppose it’s a matter of taste, and that means a lot more than just the food. On balance it’s a great town.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences will also be available later today. All we can say is Europe’s latest round of ’Kick the Can’ still seems to be working very well.  For all we have our reservations about the extended viability of the US (and more recent European) equities rally, it is a wonder to behold. We offer our compliments to ECB President Draghi on the outstanding spin he attached to supportive comments on the euro at the end of last month in London.

As we noted last week, while clearly stating the European Central Bank will “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro, he quickly backed off at the following Thursday’s ECB press conference to make sure everyone also heard the caveat “within our mandate.” What a wonderful canard by which to flip the whole matter back to the political class regarding the nature of that ECB mandate. And by clarifying the political steps necessary to allow the ECB to act, he also left a much clearer path to potential resolution…

…or at least the availability of a much larger liquidity BandAid for a still very contentious overall solvency problem. And that latter issue is the ultimate dilemma that must be resolved. However, by espousing such extensive support right into the summer holiday season he also managed to foster an extended negotiation window during which it is not possible to get any more negative on the global economy based on a crisis in Europe.

And that is especially so in light of the heavy anticipation attached to the Jackson Hole Central Bank QE-athon on Friday. Now that Signore Draghi has (curiously) cancelled his Saturday speech out there, even more emphasis will be placed on whatever Mr. Bernanke has to say. As regular readers know, we think all of that is so much falderal regarding any actual assistance for the real economy. Yet it must still be watched closely for the potential ‘knee jerk” impact on the near term trend; such as any possible temporary boost it might provide both equities and commodities.

So the equities get to enjoy a bit more holiday hiatus of the likes they have not experienced since 2009. Yet, is it real, or just another Fed QE and Euro-zone ‘solution’ mirage? One aspect we continue to note is the breathtaking lack of detail.

But that is for another time. For now, enjoy the upcoming events outlook and technical tendencies that are still current from last week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences (also available through the link in the right hand column.) The latter have reinforced all of our recent expectations for equities being the ‘Energizer Bunny’ of asset classes, as they just ‘keep going and going’… at least until last Tuesday when all the euphoric news on the alleged ECB mandate to buy endless mounds of distressed peripheral debt drove the S&P 500 to a new 4-year high, only finish lower.

A minor technical reversal to be sure. Yet, just the sort of thing that occurs during exhaustion phases. And isn’t it interesting that core govvies are still acting like they seriously doubt a sustainable cure for Europe (right now that means Greece and even more so Spain) will actually be achieved anytime soon.

These psychological “bad news is good news” phases are always so interesting!!

Thanks for your interest.

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column along with this week’s Summary Perspective on Key Influences. All we could say was’Kick the Can’ seems to be working very well.  For all we have our reservations about the extended viability of the US (and now European) equities rally, it is a wonder to behold. We offer our compliments to ECB President Draghi on the outstanding spin he attached to supportive comments on the euro in London.

While clearly stating the European Central Bank will “do whatever is necessary” to save the euro, he quickly backed off at the following Thursday’s ECB press conference to make sure everyone also heard the caveat “within our mandate.” What a wonderful canard by which to flip the whole matter back to the political class regarding the nature of that ECB mandate. And by clarifying the political steps necessary to allow the ECB to act, he also left a much clearer path to potential resolution…

…or at least the availability of a much larger liquidity BandAid for a still very contentious overall solvency problem. And that latter issue is the ultimate dilemma that must be resolved. However, by espousing such extensive support right into the summer holiday season he also managed to foster an extended negotiation window during which it is not possible to get any more negative on the global economy based on a crisis in Europe.

So the equities get to enjoy a holiday hiatus of the likes they have not experienced since 2009. Yet, is it real, or just another Euro-zone mirage?One aspect we continue to note is the breathtaking lack of detail.

But that is for another time. For now, enjoy the read and research on the upcoming events and technical tendencies. The latter have reinforced all of our recent expectations forequities being the ‘Energizer Bunny’ of asset classes, as they just ‘keep going and going’… at least until today when all the euphoric news on the alleged ECB mandate to buy endless mounds of distressed peripheral debt drove the S&P 500 to a new 4-year high, only finish lower.

A minor reversal to be sure. Yet, just the sort of thing that occurs during exhaustion phases.These psychological “bad news is good news” phases are always so interesting!!

Thanks for your interest.