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2012/10/30: Hurricane Sandy classically perverse economic influence

October 31, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

As we noted in the previous post’s mention of this aspect, there is a typically somewhat perverse influence of a major storm like Hurricane Sandy. It is so counterintuitive as to not be as clear cut as most folks would like to think. Anyone except serious market students who have been there before (like Irene and especially Katrina, etc.) are not necessarily prepared to look at all the carnage presented by the media and consider it is anything negative.

The only question now is whether this storm is the norm or a new form? And by that we mean the extensive damage (even more so by a major factor than last year’s Hurricane Irene) that is being incurred not just along the entire Northeastern seaboard, but the entire Northeast region. It is one thing for New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf coast to be slammed by Katrina. Might it be another matter altogether for the highly concentrated Northeast (as well as regions as far west as Pennsylvania and even Ohio) to be shut down for an extended period?

Maybe. But it in the final analysis it shouldn’t actually be an economic drag over horizons like 90-180 days because…

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Rohr Market Research Tagged economic, economy, Hurricane Sandy, macro-technical, S&P 500, Sandy, TREND

2012/10/30: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar, Summary Perspective and Sandy classical (perverse) economic influence!!

October 30, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Summary Perspective is also available and still relevant... with its review of the typically somewhat perverse influence of a major storm like Hurricane Sandy. It is so counterintuitive as to bamboozle most folks who are not serious market students who have been there before (like Irene and especially Katrina), but…

There is a very good reason the equities have held up so well in the face of a human tragedy that includes massive economic carnage…

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged calendar, central bank, economic, economy, equities, government bond, govvies, Hurricane Sandy, macro-technical, QE3, S&P 500, Sandy, Summary Perspective, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/10/24: Weekly Perspective and Technicals available into critical market phase

October 24, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Very short and sweet today, because all of the perspective is still much the same as yesterday’s post on the idea that it is Probably NOT Equities Big Bust …Just Yet. Even though the equities gapped down Tuesday below important supports at the bottom of a six-week trading range, the more important trend decision areas remain below the market. In the first instance there is the old early September gap in the 1,400 area on the December S&P 500 future. And that includes a Tolerance level even somewhat lower than that.

Yet, the most important evolution in the background that has driven the market psychology is the weakness of corporate topline revenues. That psychological discussion on that is available in our Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective (link in the right-hand sidebar), with Technicals updated through Tuesday’s US Close as well.

That reinforces all of the warnings from the bears (present company included) that the weaker global economy would not allow companies to endlessly ‘manufacture’ attractive profits from sheer cost-cutting alone. At some point the piper would need to be paid with the sort of sustained lower earnings expectations that had been anticipated for the third quarter; and now that moment seem to have arrived…

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged Bund, calendar, earnings, economic, economy, equities, government bond, govvies, macro-technical, QE3, revenue, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/10/23: Quick Post: Courtesy Market Alert: Probably NOT Equities Big Bust …Just Yet

October 23, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

Short & Sweet again on the specific market comments in this post, because today’s TrendView Market Alert is a pointed discussion of the most critical short-term technical area NOT being the (now violated) December S&P 500 future 1,430-20 range. In other words, there are lower supports which are more important… like the 1,400 area and its Tolerance in the 1,389-87 range, which was held on minor reactions when the market was on the way up into August and early September. It was also the heavier congestion on the way up into a temporary top in March-April.

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged calendar, central bank, economic, economy, equities, FOMC, government bond, govvies, macro-technical, QE3, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/10/20: Quick Post: Just a brief reminder what it’s all about

October 20, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Using all of the varied fundamental and technical analysis sometimes seems to bog down into analysis overload. Of course, that means the art is in knowing which techniques and general deduction and/or inference have worked best in historic phases to cut through the extended analytic trees to get a relevant vision of the forest. Yet in spite of the effort required to use a broad range of insights, in the end it is worth it because…

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged analysis, fundamental, history, I Ching, macro-technical, markets, politico-economic, technical
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