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2012/11/20: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective: All as expected on equities rally from support

November 20, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar along with the Weekly Summary Perspective are available through the links in the right hand column. The Perspective sums up what has been the anticipated reaction to the more cooperative tone of US Fiscal Cliff negotiations convened by the President at the end of last week. As was easy to surmise, both sides of the otherwise highly partisan US Congress were interested in appearing more reasonable. And then the equities were allowed to assume the best as Congress pulled that great European summer holiday trick: they left town. It could just as easily have been August in Europe instead of Thanksgiving in the US.

That came along with somewhat better US data (especially housing) and funding for Greece, which was enough to bring in a very sharp equities relief rally yesterday.  That sent the December S&P 500 future gapping up from last week’s test of 1,350 area back up to the 1,387 Tolerance of the 1,400 area overall congestion. And that is how the "worst case scenario" ending up getting turned around into the sharp rally.

At least for now… 

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Rohr Market Research

2012/11/16: The Petraeus Predicament and bye-bye Ho-Ho’s

November 16, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Let’s begin by allowing that some might wonder what the liquidation of Hostess Brands and today’s Congressional testimony on the Benghazi tragedy from General David Petraeus have to do with the markets? While the near term effect will likely be very transitory (if indeed there is any at all), they each provide interesting insights and might exert some influence on American politics and economics. It is especially the case right now that the former might have a very significant influence on the latter.

Maybe this all seems more important because it is a slow economic data day. An spite of that we will also have more to say about the state of the markets at the end of this post as well.

To begin, General Petraeus’ fall is a tragedy of Shakespearian proportions. A true American hero whose commitment to public service even at high personal physical and political risk was a model for others. And yet, feet of clay leave him embarrassed and dismissed from high public office. Not the first, but surely one of the most poignant examples of this. And as most readers who have followed the multiple threads of the Benghazi consulate attack are aware, there is at least one aspect which is now very interesting to all concerned: to what degree did his desire to keep his personal problem under wraps affect his performance as CIA chief during and in the immediate aftermath of that attack?

Conspiracy theories abound…

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged Benghazi, Congress, economic, economy, Employment report, equities, Euro, Fiscal Cliff, government bond, govvies, macro-technical, Obama, Petraeus, S&P 500, Susan Rice, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/11/13: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Perspective: All as expected on equities choppy grind lower

November 13, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar along with the Weekly Summary Perspective are available through the links in the right hand column. The Perspective sums up what has been the anticipated reaction to last week’s re-election of the President. As we immediately noted when the election outcome became clear last Tuesday evening, it was the "worst case scenario."

That is not a partisan statement intended to disparage the President. It was just that an ineffective highly, partisan split Congress with a President who got only the slightest majority of the popular vote was going to be problematic. That's a prescription for a higher risk of actually heading over the Fiscal Cliff in January. At the very least, this is left us with a level of uncertainty that has created highly volatile, low liquidity markets. That was one of the main topics of discussion when I cohosted Jack Bouroudjian’s Jack B. Show today, extending into the still less than constructive influence out of Europe. Thanks to Jack for exploring all that.

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Rohr Market Research Tagged economic, economy, equities, Euro, European Debt-Dilemma, Fiscal Cliff, government bond, govvies, Greece, IMF, Jack B. Show, Lagarde, macro-technical, NGO, Obama, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/11/06: Quick Post: Weekly Calendar and Brief Update access on US election pollsters really wrong in some ways

November 6, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. The Summary Perspective will available later today in deference to wanting to wait for today’s US market Close to update the technical projections in front of tomorrow’s election response. And whatever the election may bring, one thing is glaringly apparent as the Northeast continues to struggle with Super Storm Sandy’s aftermath...

…the counterintuitive ability of markets to anticipate the degree to which the rebuilding effort is a ‘GDP-positive’ event. That is to say our views on the positive market anticipation of the reconstruction and rehabilitation effort trumping the extreme human tragedy and near term economic damage have been vindicated. It will ultimately provide more of a bump to GDP that the loss of business from the downtime of the businesses waiting for replacement/repair of their buildings and equipment.

And now it’s on to the election follies. And we have covered that at some length in today's institutional TrendView BRIEF UPDATE, we will leave it for you to decide whether the more aggressive polling organizations and analysts have it right. And whichever side prevails in the race for the White House, there is a case to be made the market response might seem a bit perverse because…

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Rohr Market Research Tagged calendar, central bank, economic, economy, equities, Euro, Fed, Gilt, government bond, govvies, Hurricane Sandy, macro-technical, Obama, QE, Romney, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2012/11/01: Wait for it… heeeere it comes: US General Election Delay?

November 2, 2012 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

Yes, indeed, we know. This is something that a few folks have noted before, only to see it immediately refuted by the powers-that-be. But when you think about it…

…does either side have any interest in going forward if it is possible that any major portion of the Northeast remains dysfunctional on Tuesday in the wake of Super Storm Sandy? The Democrats surely wouldn’t want one of their bastions of electoral strength to be left without full and fair representation.

And what about the Republicans? Well, there are areas where they are very strong and the election is critical in Appalachia and elsewhere. Even if the powers-that-be on each side of the political divide allow that it might all average out, isn’t this a dangerous precedent for the standpoint electoral enthusiasm? In an America already suffering from an unhealthy level of voter apathy (at least up until 2010), is a “Don’t worry if you didn’t get to vote; it’ll all average out” a quality ethic for either party?

And there is one more very good reason. Almost all informed observers allow this is more of a battle for the very soul of the United States than the election of any particular individual. While Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney are the standard bearers at the top of each ticket, the stakes are more so the basic philosophy of government that may well dominate the US for a generation.

Is it going to continue to become increasingly statist along the lines of the Obama approach (with a major assist from his predecessor’s abandonment of some cherished Republican precepts)? Or is it going to go back to the more self-sufficient ‘classic’ American tendencies that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan assert (rightfully or not) they will be able to put back in place?

And there is an important accelerant on all that partisan perspective that neither side has been very vocal about throughout the entire process, precisely because it is the most important prize. The truth that nobody dare speak too loudly is that…

 

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Rohr Market Research Tagged Bund, economic, economy, election, equities, Euro, Gilt, government bond, govvies, Hurricane Sandy, Jack B. Show, macro-technical, Obama, Romney, S&P 500, Sandy, TREND, US Dollar Index, US General Election
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