© 2012 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective is also now available. Yet there is also an interesting anomaly in the fundamental influences. And it is not just the strongish US economic data versus the trepidation over the potential plunge off the Fiscal Cliff… as that dilemma looks closer to being solved timely enough (end of year or top of January) to avoid its worst effects.
There is also the negative outlook for Europe. Today’s German and Euro-zone (essentially the same) ZEW Sentiment (i.e. the forward view) was stronger than expected. Yet, that flies in the face of other indications out of Europe that are still incredibly weak… like the recent Italian and Spanish Industrial Production numbers that came in below already weak estimates. And anyone who thinks Germany is going to return to being a bastion of strength in Europe should take a look at Monday morning’s admittedly mixed Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).
The only real growth is in the US and (interestingly enough in light of recent official forecasts) the UK, with growth or even economic basing elsewhere problematic at best. Even more important is the degree to which Germany remains on a distinctly downward path into the early part of next year. The general tone of the OECD regarding the actual condition of CLI on individual countries is also typically charitable. How does France sliding further below 100 and remaining on a clear downward path indicate “weak growth”? And even though it is still marginally above 100, the same goes for Japan; especially in light of it just recently going back into recession.
And it appears that our continued concerns over US Taxulationism1 are finally beginning to bite. It is no longer just our theoretical assessment that these influences from a Nanny State run amok are a problem.
1Taxulationism © 2010 Alan Rohrbach & Jack Bouroudjian. All rights reserved unless explicitly waived
Def.: Combined impact of taxation, regulation and protectionism to an oppressive degree as official policy
There is now real-world confirmation from actual surveys of the impact this is going to have into the early part of next year. And that comes from none other than one of our favorite US employment-related resources…
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