Rohr International's Blog ...evolved capital markets insights

Informed observations on international capital markets & global politico-economics ...with extended ideas on major market trend implications

  • Required Reading Risk Disclaimer
  • About Rohr
  • Subscription Echelons & Fees
  • Tours
  • Contact Us
  • Required Reading Risk Disclaimer
  • About Rohr
  • Subscription Echelons & Fees
  • Tours
  • Contact Us

2013/02/11: Calendar, OECD still mixed with US the key

February 13, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added sometime soon. Yet, in addition to the calendar are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: What a significantly robust week it is on all fronts, and (in spite of what some may say about the possible self-sustaining potential of the Chinese and other Asian economies) the degree to which the US remains the key to the rest of the world’s further growth prospects.

That we have quite a bit of important midmonth economic data is a given. After a light data day today, those always include a range of global GDP figures (somewhat after the US release), US and UK Retail Sales, various Chinese data even though it is closed all week for the Lunar New Year. And first but not least of the truly global indications was the OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) Composite Leading Indicators (CLI.)

Still mixed... US holds key (click for full report.)

Those still showed a very mixed picture that we interpreted to mean there is still quite a burden on the US to continue to lead any further global economic growth. More on that later. But for now, there are also extensive finance minister and central bank meetings this week beginning with Europe today and tomorrow and evolving into the G20 in Moscow Thursday and Friday.

And those are looking to be pretty contentious this time around.

 

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Bund, calendar, central bank, Composite Leading Indicators, Congress, Draghi, economic, economy, equities, EU, Euro, Fiscal Cliff, G20, Gilt, government bond, govvies, macro-technical, Obama, S&P 500, sequester, sequestration, TREND, US Dollar Index

2013/01/29: Calendar, Finance Meets Professional Wrestling

January 29, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added after the US Close today to allow for the influence of all of the (admittedly light) early week economic data prior to the late month data commencing tomorrow along with the FOMC announcement. Obviously that is followed by all of the first of the month data, which includes US Employment on Friday.

Yet, in addition to the calendar there are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: the final degeneration of the public image of finance (aided and abetted by the financial fourth estate), and the degree to which the equities’ technical psychology remains positive in spite of the March S&P 500 future setback from the 1,500 area.

First of all, there are the shenanigans surrounding Pershing Square Capital Management CEO Bill Ackman’s very public expressions of his bearish view of (and significant short position in) nutritional supplements company HerbalLife. And as most of you are likely already aware, that has led to a very public spat with previously aggressive activist investor turned corporate shepherd Carl Icahn. The highlight clip of that several day running confrontation is an interesting, if somewhat depressing, bit of viewing.

Click for Ackman/Icahn Audio-Visual Highlights

 

Much more of the story beyond the clip highlights (including the back story on the sour relationship) is available online via Business Insider. And just to show it is not just CNBC self-promotion when they say it, the BI article title also refers to it as The Greatest Moment in Financial TV History. More like one of the most depressing displays of excessive ego and opinion. (That said, the BI article is a bit of a good giggle.)

And it leaves an already suffering financial services and investment industry (especially the ‘active funds management’ sector after the past couple of years) with another hit to its public image. Strong expressions of opinions on individual investments and entire sectors are to be expected from high-profile fund managers. But what transpired last week seems beyond the pale.

It sounded a lot more like the kind of confrontation we recall from our misspent youth watching professional wrestling interviews on television…

 

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged calendar, central bank, economic, economy, Employment report, equities, Euro, Fed, FOMC, Gilt, government bond, govvies, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index

2013/01/24: Technicals and Best Davos Insight

January 24, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

A fresh set of Technical Projections and Select Comments are already available via the link in the right hand column, current through Wednesday’s US Close. And those are now very relevant to the near term price activity in equities that are done standing still since the end of last week. Other asset classes that have also had some reasonably strong swings.

More on that below. Yet the most interesting public insight (versus any backroom conspiracies) to come out of the World Forum in Davos, Switzerland was the CNBC interview of Bridgewater Associates’ head Ray Dalio. While he revisits quite a few topics he has expounded upon previous, his review of his general approach to ‘the machine’ (which he considers the best analysis approach to both the economy and the markets) is a always a pleasure to hear…

…and a reminder of why he is one of the most successful fund managers in history. In fact, that interview is split into two parts. The first is Dalio's Perspective on Deleveraging, followed by Dalio on Policy & Productivity. The first part is very explicit on the importance of the various aspects and approaches to the current major deleveraging cycle. There are also discussions of how the central banks are affecting markets and economies, and a reminder that trading is a zero sum game.

The second section relates it all back to the current economic conditions, and even ends with a very brief individual country review. Enjoy the view. In the meantime, even though the markets took some interesting swings today, we feel the basic themes of stronger equities, challenged govvies and highly varied foreign exchange remain in place. 

 

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged central bank, Dalio, Davos, Draghi, ECB, economic, economy, equities, Euro, European Debt-Dilemma, Fed, Fiscal Cliff, government bond, govvies, Greece, macro-technical, QE3, S&P 500, TREND, US Dollar Index, World Bank

2013/01/23: Quick Post: The Great Dissembler triumphs again

January 23, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Calendar has also been available since yesterday. And the continuing contradiction remains between fundamental influences that remain weaker than expected in some cases yet with technical trend activity which remains quite firm.

However, that is not such a huge surprise since the March S&P 500 future pulled off the ‘jailbreak’ above 1,474.50 last Friday (i.e. also a weekly Close) we had been discussing as a potential over the past several weeks. With a range of key technical indications (i.e. one of our classical ‘confluences’) pointing to next significant psychological and technical resistances not until 1,510 and 1,526, it is normal for the market to shrug off negative news until it gets closer to those levels.

After that, some of the problems which the equities are so happy to blithely ignore at present may come back to haunt the developed economies in spite of the generally upbeat psychology at present. And in our humble view, one manifestation of the sorts of problems that might well represent a real economic and market headwind came out of a less than obvious source: Secretary of State Clinton’s illness-delayed appearance before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

It was obviously less of any sort of direct economic or market influence, and more so a clear indication of the utter inability of most folks in the US Congress, even the ostensibly very smart ones, to follow up on a line of reasoning. And there was one particularly interesting exchange and aftermath.

That was Mrs. Clinton’s emotional outburst in response to Senator Ron Johnson (one of those really smart folks in Congress) pointedly questioning her on the degree to which the Administration clung to its lame (and completely unsupported) claim that the Benghazi attack sprung spontaneously from a previously orderly demonstration. Just for the record (and edification of anyone who just came out of a several month coma), there was no evidence whatsoever of any demonstration at all prior to a very well-coordinated attack on the US facility.

That is in no way intended as a partisan criticism. As it is eminently clear that no additional critical information of any sort came out of this important hearing, there is plenty of failure on both sides that informs an even more depressing view than any failure to get to the truth behind the Administration’s disinformation policy how’s and why’s: neither side of the US political divide is capable of critical pursuit of information, as they are all much more interested in spouting sound bite fodder for their next set of election campaign ads… or so it seems.   

Hillary's Hardline Hissy-fit

 

Mrs. Clinton’s fit of pique with Senator Johnson’s pointed discussion and inquiry is a wonderful case in point. As you hear her respond that it really doesn’t make a difference whether the attack sprung from a demonstration or “…guys out for a walk one night who decided they’d go kill some Americans…”, keep one thing in mind: Nobody ever asserted that latter was the case. And in taking that line, one of the Great Dissemblers (right along with husband Bill) of US and likely global politics won the day.

And for anyone who is unfamiliar with the term ‘dissemble’ it means, “To disguise or conceal behind a false appearance, or alternatively to make a false show.” Well, it seems we have a wonderful example of both here.

 

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged Benghazi, Clinton, Congress, ECB, economic, economy, equities, European Debt-Dilemma, hearing, Johnson, macro-technical, S&P 500, TREND

2013/01/22: Calendar, Japan and ‘Sherlock Holmes’ Equities Psych

January 22, 2013 Rohr-Blog Leave a comment

© 2013 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available through the link in the right hand column. This week’s Summary Perspective will be added sometime soon. Yet, in addition to the calendar are two key areas of interest we want to cover today: Japan and the degree to which the Equities psychology remains very positive in spite of some obvious headwinds.

First of all, the combined Bank of Japan and Japanese government anti-deflation program announced today is as breathtaking in its scope as it is quirky in its implementation. If they are so committed to ensuring the inflation rate ramps up to 2.0%, why are they deferring the extended additional asset purchase program until the beginning of next year? We suppose there is quite a bit of anticipatory psychology they expect to accomplish their ends without actually doing anything in the near-term.

Mr. Bernanke has shown how well that works on the Fed QE-Infinity program, so why wouldn’t Japan try it is well? Of course, the truly scary part is the degree to which they expect inflation to go from barely positive this year to something in the 3.0% area in 2014. That not only seems astounding as a prediction, but may well hold other risks to the Japanese government financing ability. They should be careful what they wish for.

Back to more mundane if still fairly exciting matters, the March S&P 500 future push above the 1,474.50 major September lead contract high. In essence amounts to the ‘jailbreak’ we had discussed in the Rohr-Blog US Equities Attempt a Jailbreak… post last Friday (in the wake of Thursday's gap higher into that area.)

The bottom line is that in spite of this morning's minor setback the bulls still own the trend unless and until the bears can get the market to Close back below last Thursday's 1,470.70-1,465.60 gap higher. One of the key technical aspects that assisted Friday's late session recovery was the inability of the bears to leverage the weak Michigan Sentiment number, as the March S&P 500 future held exactly at the 1,470.70 top of that gap.

Click on Chart to enlarge

And in spite of our skepticism toward the equities across the first quarter, that all fits in very nicely with the broader technical projections allowing a move up to the low 1,500 area prior to the lead contract S&P 500 future being overbought once again. It is all about the confluence of factors we discussed in the previous Thursday’s (Jan. 10) Might US Equities Attempt a Jailbreak? post.

Once the equities demonstrate that the bears will not likely be able to force a Close back below last Thursday's 1,470.70-1,465.60 gap higher, the path of least resistance becomes up; at least until they hit the next significant threshold.

We laid out the theory and practice behind that in a bit of a broader analytic psychology as to why the equities could continue lower in late 2008 in spite of how far they had already fallen. It all has to do with the combined perspective of Sherlock Holmes and Dynamic Disequilibrium…

 

Read more...

Rohr Market Research Tagged BoJ, Bund, calendar, Draghi, dynamic, economic, economy, equities, Euro, European Debt-Dilemma, Fed, Gilt, government bond, govvies, Greece, Japan, macro-technical, Obama, QE3, S&P 500, T-note, TREND, US Dollar Index
Older posts
Newer posts →
  • Members Area

    • Sign-up here!
    • Sign-in here!
  • Rohr International Full Website Link

    Rohr's Website

  • Rohr International Overview

    • Alan Rohrbach Bio
    • Technicals are Rosetta Stone… and a ‘Little Secret’ About Rigid Schools
    • Rohr’s ‘Essential’ Macro-Technical Analysis Full Background Video… Benefit from the In-Depth Concept and Major Historic Applied Example
    • ‘Big Fed Cut’ with Phil Flynn at CME, also Biden with both “Meaningless” in the face of COVID-19 Surge
    • NOV 20 ‘Santa Baby!’ Follow-Up with Phil Flynn Post-FOMC (OCT 30) and Still Quite Bullish US Equities
    • Pre-FOMC (OCT 30) Interview at CME with Price Group’s Phil Flynn predicting further US equities rally
    • The ROHR Insight Advantage
    • Prescient Rohr Early 2008 Interview 12th Anniversary Relevant Lookback
  • ROHR FT Split Bond Views Letter

    January 12, 2024 - Strong Differing Bond Views Maybe Just a Sideshow
  • ROHR FT 2007 Déjà Vu Letter

    December 8, 2023 - Late 2023 Bond Market Looking A Lot Like mid-2007
  • ROHR FT ‘Medium’ Driver Letter

    November 27, 2017 - Why 'Medium' in the Electric Age is driving polarization
  • ROHR Financial Times ‘Risk’ Letter

    October 20, 2017 - Key View: Massive 'Tame' Passive Investment a Real Risk
  • Focused Rohr Expertise Centers

    Rohr Benefits, Perspective & Analytics Samples in a Nutshell. Take a Look…
  • Rohr Alert!! Active S&P 500 views

    • Current Rohr Trend Alert!! and Extended S&P 500 Oscillator Levels
    • Rohr Trend Alert!! Archives Available on a 2 Week Delay
  • Rohr Global Research Note

    • Current Rohr Research Note
    • Rohr Research Note Archive – Available on a 2 Week Delay
  • Rohr International Weekly Report & Event Color-Coded Calendar

    • Current Bi-Weekly Calendar
    • Bi-Weekly International Calendar Archives
  • Better Market Ideas from Independent Analysis…

    Advice both Institutional Investors and Highly Active Dealers/Traders want. And that is NOT at all just our view. Take a Look…
  • Blog Echelons Content & Fee Tables

    • Subscription Table with Fees. ‘Contact Us’ for 14-Day Free Trial
  • Rohr Global Services with Fees

    • Rohr Global Services: Basic Blog onto Full Institutional Advisory
  • Media

    • Rohr’s ‘Essential’ Macro-Technical Analysis Full Background Video… Benefit from In-Depth Concept and Major Historic Applied Example
    • Executive Series Topical Q&A with Ceres Limited’s Brian Jenkins
    • Television
    • Radio
    • Print
    • ‘Teachable Moment’ Analysis Videos from key price trend turning points. Some vintage (2013), some current, all relevant insights. (Accessible for Gold and Platinum subscribers only)
    • Rohr’s Macro-Market Daily e-zine with Multifaceted International Perspective and Broad-Based News (click the title to access the paper)
  • Rohr Website Pages

    • ‘New/Old’ Markets Paradigm
    • ROHR: Methodology & Perspectives
    • ROHR Client Testimonials
    • Alan Rohrbach’s LinkedIn Profile (requires LinkedIn membership)
  • Rohr-Blog Post Calendar

    October 2025
    M T W T F S S
     12345
    6789101112
    13141516171819
    20212223242526
    2728293031  
    « Jul    
  • Archives

  • Hottest Rohr-Blog Topics

    analysis Asia Australia BoE BoJ Bund China comments confluence DAX debt dollar Draghi ECB economic employment equities Euro Europe Fed fixed income FOMC Foreign Exchange FTSE GDP Germany Gilt Indicators inflation instability Japan macro macro-technical NIKKEI PMI Pound QE S&P 500 T-note technical TREND UK US dollar Yellen Yen
Copyright © 2011 Rohr International's Blog ...evolved capital markets insights
Top