2014/02/12: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, February 12, 2014 (late)

Global View: All Markets  

As noted this morning, the strength of the equity's in the wake of all-around weak data on Friday is a sign of yet another psychological change. Especially as the March S&P 500 future only dipped very temporarily back below the key 1,762 December 18^th initial FOMC QE taper low after the weak US Employment report on Friday prior to pushing up to 1,794.

The question of what is going on has now been answered. While it might have been due to the most recent emerging markets crisis abating to some degree, the far greater reason would seem to be "bad news is good news" again on the Fed’s willingness to ‘taper the taper’ of its Quantitative Easing. New Chairman Yellen was very clear that while the QE taper plan remains a primary focus, the Fed will still take real world economic and market conditions into account. Of course, that was cause for further equities joy.

The obvious fly in the ointment on that idea is what transpires in her follow-on Senate testimony on Thursday. It is not only clear the anti-QE camp has won the debate over extended QE being economically ineffective (versus the earlier necessary move in 2009), there are also the commitments she gave Senators Corker and Shelby back in her confirmation hearing: the Fed is neither market driven nor would it hesitate to deflate a bubble. That’s going to be interesting. But for now, as long as the March S&P 500 future maintains support at the violated 1,804 DOWN Break to no worse than 1,793 previous minor trading range high, it can likely head up for a test of the mid-1,820’s or even mid-1,830’s.  

The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) factor discussion of the degree to which the equities were hostage to whatever Janet Yellen had to say yesterday. They not only liked her indication there is some flexibility in the pace of the Fed’s QE ‘taper’ based on economic conditions, but also the significantly improved Chinese Trade balance this morning. That creates a real challenge for the bears, even if there is additional fundamental influence from Australian Employment, German CPI and US Retail Sales early Thursday morning. And even if the latter are weak, it will be blamed on the weather.

It moves on from there to the March S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:50 and intermediate-term at 05:20, then the other equities from 07:00, with govvies analysis beginning at 09:30 and short money forwards at 13:20. Foreign exchange begins with the US Dollar Index at 16:00, jumping over to Europe at 16:40 and Asia at 20:15, followed by the cross rates at 23:45, and a return to the March S&P 500 future at 29:50 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the link in the sidebar]

The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis’ General Update

Read more...

2014/02/12: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)

© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, February 12, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

As noted since Monday morning, the strength of the equity's in the wake of all-around weak data on Friday was a sign of a psychological change. Especially as the March S&P 500 future only dipped very temporarily back below the key 1,762 December 18^th initial FOMC QE taper low after the weak US Employment report on Friday prior to pushing up to 1,794.

The question of what is going on has now been answered. While it might have been due to the most recent emerging markets crisis abating to some degree, the far greater reason would seem to be "bad news is good news" again on the Fed’s willingness to ‘taper the taper’ of its Quantitative Easing. New Chairman Yellen was very clear that while the QE taper plan remains a primary focus, the Fed will still take real world economic and market conditions into account. Of course, that was cause for further equities joy.

The obvious fly in the ointment on that idea is what transpires in her follow-on Senate testimony on Thursday. It is not only clear the anti-QE camp has won the debate over extended QE being economically ineffective (versus the earlier necessary move in 2009), there are also the commitments she gave Senators Corker and Shelby back in her confirmation hearing: the Fed is neither market driven nor would it hesitate to deflate a bubble. That’s going to be interesting. But for now, as long as the March S&P 500 future maintains support at the violated 1,804 DOWN Break to no worse than 1,793 previous minor trading range high, it can likely head up for a test of the mid-1,820’s or even mid-1,830’s.  

The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) factor discussion of the degree to which the equities were hostage to whatever Janet Yellen had to say yesterday. They not only liked her indication there is some flexibility in the pace of the Fed’s QE ‘taper’ based on economic conditions, but also the significantly improved Chinese Trade balance this morning. That creates a real challenge for the bears in any attempt to get the market back below the violated resistances noted above with little US data today (with more fine line analysis of the short term trend in the video.)

It moves on from there to the March S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:20 and intermediate-term at 04:30 with mention of the other equities prior to moving on to the full Govvies review at 07:20 with mention of the other govvies. Foreign exchange begins with the US Dollar Index at 10:45 only mentioning the euro and other US dollar relationships (due to activity fully consistent with Monday evening’s analysis) prior to discussion of the EUR/JPY, followed by video analysis of EUR/AUD at 12:10 and EUR/GBP at 13:25, with a return to the March S&P 500 future at 15:10 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the link in the sidebar]

The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis’

Read more...