2014/03/20: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, March 20, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
What a difference a day, and a significant shift in Fed perception, makes. Did Janet Yellen really mean “six months” after the last QE purchases for the first rate hike? Or does she want that one back, and really meant to say “at least six months”? That’s going to make for a very interesting bit of spin over coming days as the equities head for lower supports. If the Fed minions stick with the six month horizon, it is a bit more hawkish and potentially worse for both equities and the already weak US government bond markets.
However, if they soften it over the near term, that is going to be the basis for at least the equities bouncing back from key nearby lower supports. Especially important is the June S&P 500 future near term topping pattern completion into the low end of the gap higher from last Friday’s low ball (i.e. pre-Crimean secession vote) 1,833 area. And if it does drop that far, it will also reinforce the importance of yesterday’s 1,867 high of the short term rally as a very key resistance (essentially the ‘right shoulder’ high Tolerance of that short term H&S Top pattern.)
Of course, there was much else affected by Ms. Yellen’s “six month” statement, and whether it is moderated in near term future communication. The short money forwards were obviously under pressure along with government bond markets, and the US dollar got one of those de rigueur boosts associated with higher comparative short term interest rates. Yet those are also problematic depending on how much they can feed on themselves, or are more so one-time adjustments within the overall trends. Much more on that in the video analysis.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the Fed factors noted above, and also the degree to which the equities weakness is a bit perverse in the context of modest amounts of stronger economic data. It also noted the importance of the pending US data today, as there are no US economic releases tomorrow.
It moves on from there to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate-term at 03:50, then the other equities from 06:30, with govvies analysis beginning at 10:50 (including discussion of the significant discounts in the June contracts) and short money forwards at 17:40. Foreign exchange begins with the US Dollar Index at 23:15, jumping over to Europe at 25:35 and Asia at 28:50, followed by the cross rates at 31:40, and a return to the June S&P 500 future at 34:30 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to its assessment of significant near term shifts, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and General Update
2014/03/21: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/03/21: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, March 21, 2014 (early)
Did Janet Yellen really mean “six months” after the last QE purchases for the first rate hike? Or does she want that one back, and really meant to say “at least six months”? As we suspected, that is making for a very interesting bit of spin over coming days as the equities recover from lower supports. It seems they want to believe the latter is the case. And that is in spite of some weaker (if limited) economic data once again out of Australian and Europe overnight into this morning.
And that has seen the June S&P 500 future near term topping pattern completion aborted on its failure to follow through down to the low end of the gap higher from last Friday’s low ball (i.e. pre-Crimean secession vote) 1,833 area. It rather chose to run up to challenge Wednesday’s 1,867 high; and trading above it this morning is a further sign of strength that puts the burden of proof back on the bears.
Of course, there was much else affected by Ms. Yellen’s “six month” statement, and whether it is moderated in near term future communication. The short money forwards were obviously under pressure along with government bond markets, and the US Dollar Index got one of those de rigueur boosts associated with higher comparative short term interest rates. Yet those are also problematic depending on how much they can feed on themselves, and at least so far the US Dollar Index .8000 UP Break has failed to inspire a push above the more critical .8040 resistance.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the Fed factors noted above, and also the degree to which the equities strength is very interesting in the wake of that weaker data this morning with no US data at all scheduled today.
It moves on from there to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate-term at 03:50, then discussion of the other equities rally back but only to lower resistances so far, and foreign exchange conforming to yesterday morning’s analysis. That includes the US Dollar Index UP Break above .8000 yet stalling into the key .8040 area, and EUR/USD back below 1.3836 (also on a near term DOWN Break), yet with 1.3750-00 the more critical support. All other currencies are similarly still holding against the US dollar as well.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Weekly Report & Event Summary Perspective are available via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update
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