2014/03/31: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Monday, March 31, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
As we noted from early Wednesday morning, “It may get very interesting today as we move from the economic to the geopolitical and back to the financial services focus once again.” And that sequence unfolded as expected on the geopolitical being very influential once again on Mr. Obama’s very weak positions in his speech after Wednesday’s US-EU Summit. That disturbed the equities into lunchtime in the US after an early June S&P 500 future test of the 1,868 failure from the previous Friday. And then the financial services focus kicked in again on the Fed Comprehensive Capital Analysis of the major US banks (and major US subsidiaries of foreign banks) release right into the cash equities Close.
That was the second phase of the Stress Tests, and the fact that Citigroup failed to get its capital plan approved once again weighed on the equities. Yet, even as that spilled over into early Thursday weakness which saw the June S&P 500 future just about fill the gap back to the 1,833 pre-Crimean secession vote on Friday the 14th, the burden of proof was on the bears. That test was the very important the completion of the Double Top pattern we have noted might be the case since it topped a week ago Friday near the 1,877.20 March 7th high.
More on that below, but for now one of the key axioms that supports all technical trend analysis has been verified once again. Markets tend to move between the key trend areas, and much of what transpires in between is ‘noise’. Whatever may transpire on any attempt to Break DOWN below 1,833, the completion of the Double Top pattern reinforces this precept. In the first instance, last Wednesday morning’s failure against that 1,868 area leading to the completion of the pattern down to 1,833 in early trading yesterday was unusual only in its rapid evolution, but not that it was an eminently predictable path. Secondly, Unless the bears can get the June S&P 500 future to crack 1,833 soon to actually put in a DOWN Break from what is now a well-established Double Top, the trend is much more likely to revert to the overall major up trend that hasn’t been violated in any way by the recent consolidation.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors surrounding end-of-month data today leading into the major early month data from tomorrow. That includes global Manufacturing PMI’s but also a reminder on the beginning of the major Japanese consumption tax hike beginning tomorrow (5.0% to 8.0%.)
It moves on from the overview to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate-term at 04:20, then the other equities from 06:30, with govvies analysis beginning at 10:25 (including discussion of the significant discounts in the June contracts) and short money forwards at 14:55. Foreign exchange begins with the US Dollar Index at 17:40, jumping over to Europe at 18:55 and Asia at 22:00, followed by the cross rates at 25:25, and a return to the June S&P 500 future at 30:50 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to its assessment of significant near term contingencies in the S&P 500 and foreign exchange, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Friday’s Current Rohr Technical Projections - Key Levels & Select Comments are available via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and General Update
2014/04/01: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/04/01: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, April 1, 2014 (early)
As we noted consistently prior to last Wednesday’s downdraft of the June S&P 500 future after the last 1,868 failure, the likely swing to test the 1,833 pre-Crimean secession vote on Friday the 14th only began the real decision. In fact, as far the market had fallen from Wednesday into early Thursday, the burden of proof was actually on the bears. That is because the drop to retest 1,833 and close the major gap higher opening From March 17th only completed a Double Top pattern, and then it was up to the bears to create the DOWN Break that might have kept the downward momentum going. Well, the activity since Thursday feels like anything but a continuation of downside momentum!!
More on that below, yet for now suffice to say that while Friday’s gap higher might have been a temporary bounce the further gap higher and extensive strength on Monday was a sign that the ‘risk on’ mentality had returned to the equities. That was in spite of mixed data yesterday, and likely had to do with Janet Yellen’s latest speech yesterday morning.
While she did not specifically walk back her FOMC press conference “six month” timetable for rate hikes after the end of Fed QE, her US labor market comments were so dovish they accomplished the same thing. The question now is whether the June S&P 500 future can continue to violate the bearish psychology with rally extension above key resistances; the first of which is of course the trading Double Top in the 1,877 area.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors surrounding top-of-month data today that included weaker Japanese Tankan Industrial Indices but steady Chinese Manufacturing PMI’s that were a bit of a relief after recent weaker data. That led into mixed Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI’s yet with France and Italy stronger than expected, and slightly better than expected Euro-zone and German Employment data. In the context of the Russia-Crimea situation remaining calm for now, that seems to be encouraging the equities for now.
It moves on from there to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate-term at 03:55 including all the important pattern and trend implications, then discussion of the other equities condition (mostly waiting on the further US leadership) at 09:20, and foreign exchange conforming to yesterday morning’s analysis at 10:05. That includes the US Dollar Index back in the .8000 area, EUR/USD still back below 1.3836 (also on a near term DOWN Break), GBP/USD firming from 1.65 to the mid-1.66 interim congestion, and the Japanese yen weakness only leading to a test of USD/JPY 103.30 so far. All other currencies are conforming to yesterday’s discussion as well.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Friday’s Current Rohr Technical Projections - Key Levels & Select Comments are available via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update
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