2014/04/04: TrendView VIDEO: Equities Topped (late)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, April 4, 2014 (late)
SPECIAL UPDATE
Equities Have Topped!! Part-1
As we noted consistently on the June S&P 500 future likely swing to test the 1,833 pre-Crimean secession vote, that finally occurred a week ago Thursday yet only completed a Double Top pattern. And then it was up to the bears to create the DOWN Break that might have kept the downward momentum going. Well, the activity since then felt like anything but a continuation of downside momentum!!
In fact, the recovery on gaps higher a week ago Friday and again on Monday and another on Tuesday was nothing less than a Negation of the Double Top pattern, and that indicated a new high above 1,877 was likely. And that is indeed just what transpired on Wednesday. And in a variation of a top evolving into a ‘continuation’ pattern (more on that below), the push above 1,877 became not just a violation of resistance but a definitive fresh UP Break.
The problem for the bulls is now twofold. Not only has the 1,877 UP Break been Negated by Friday’s sharp drop, but it also occurred on what was ostensibly ‘good’ headline economic data. As experienced market participants know, it is rare for a bull trend to reverse on weak economic data. Most of that just turns into a near term correction. It is far more likely that a bull market is going to top out for a more major reversal if it shows definitive weakness on ‘good’ news… like what occurred on Friday.
There are many other aspects to this which include the reactions of other asset classes (to be covered in a separate analysis) and the ‘hostages to fortune’ left by equities on the way up when they ignored weaker-than-expected economic data. That would be true of this week’s PMI’s (both Manufacturing and Services.) However, with an accommodative central bank psychology, it is always hard to know when the bearish background can crystalize into a more significant top and correction. We believe that began on Friday.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors noted above as well as the nature of the weak points in the ostensibly ‘good’ US Employment report; such as the much weaker than expected Hourly Wages. That would seem to reinforce the negative aspects of so many jobs now being lower paying, less secure jobs than before the recession. There is also mention of the additional headwinds from Obamacare, higher taxes, high energy prices and the like.
It moves on from there to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate-term at 05:30 including all the important pattern and trend implications, then the other equities (mostly waiting on the reaction to US weakness late Friday because they were already Closed) at 11:10, with a return to the June S&P 500 future short-term for a final look and additional points on the likelihood it will hold lower support and bounce. The also critical response of the other asset classes will be explored in separate analysis.
[The updated Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Current Rohr Technical Projections - Key Levels & Select Comments will be available after Monday's US Close (to allow for the European markets to catch up with the late Friday US influence) via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update
2014/04/06: TrendView VIDEO: Equities Topped – Part-2 (late)
2014/04/06: TrendView VIDEO: Equities Topped Part-2 (late)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Sunday, April 6, 2014 (late)
Equities Have Topped!! Part-2
Fixed Income & Foreign Exchange
As we noted in this video follow up to Friday’s definitive view on why the June S&P 500 future has likely topped in the intermediate term, be sure to watch that video if you have not done so already. While this analysis is indeed on the debt and FX markets, understanding the full implications of what went on in the US equities after Friday morning’s ostensibly constructive Non-Farm Payrolls number is critical perspective affecting the other asset classes as well.
In a nut shell, the June S&P 500 future new high above 1,877 was more than a fresh extension of the sustained rally that could not break the mid-March 1,833 low on the last selloff. In a variation of a top evolving into a ‘continuation’ pattern (more on that below), the push above 1,877 was also a definitive fresh UP Break.
The problem for the equity bulls is now twofold. Not only has the 1,877 UP Break been Negated by Friday’s sharp drop, but it also occurred on what was ostensibly ‘good’ headline economic data. That is often more telling than a selloff on nominally ‘bad’ news. And the opposite is true for the fixed income markets. Rallying sharply from lower support, or in the case of the June T-note ratcheting back above failed support, is a strong sign for the govvies in the wake of what should have been constructive economic news. The same goes for the short money forwards.
Foreign exchange also saw a response, even if far more subdued. The US dollar Index inability to sustain its recent recovery above the key .8040 area and EUR/USD holding the 1.3700 area are just two manifestations of the US equities selloff reversing a more upbeat American and greenback sentiment. That US dollar rebirth was supposed to remain after continued accommodative noises by Mario Draghi at Thursday’s ECB press conference, yet won’t work if the US economy is softening as well.
The video timeline begins with by referring everyone back to Friday afternoon’s TrendView Video, and also the macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors that fostered the bull trend capitulation. That discussion was not repeated in this afternoon’s video, as it would be redundant sut to those factors being the same.
It moves on from there to the June S&P 500 future intermediate-term trend view at 00:45 including all the important pattern and trend implications, then the govvies at 03:15, short money forwards at 09:15, moving on to the foreign exchange with the US Dollar Index at 13:30, jumping over to Europe at 15:10 and Asia at 17:55, followed by the cross rates at 21:10, and a return to the June S&P 500 future at 26:00 for a final view and additional perspective.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar is available via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update
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