2014/04/22: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, April 22, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
The extended implications of last Tuesday’s June S&P 500 future recovery back above 1,833-1,828 range confirmed that while the equities may still have topped, there is a bear squeeze in progress that is entitled to carry up to higher resistances for now. Further ‘good’ US economic data probably helped change the tone in the face of renewed geopolitical tensions focused on the eastern Ukraine. And the other headline factor which might be affecting the psychology is the US tax season cycle that ended last Tuesday.
This is the tendency for the equities to dip into the US tax deadline day, and then recover once folks know where they stand. However, there is a difference this year in the amounts of tax most middle- to high-income Americans owed for 2013. That is due to all the higher taxes put through as part of funding the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare.) Will this be the factor that finally weighs on the still buoyant retail sales not evident to date? We shall see. But for now the ‘post-tax deadline’ psychology seems to be assisting equities.
And as the June S&P 500 future was also up further last Thursday, the burden of proof is definitely back on the bears to get it to fail back below last Wednesday’s 1,840 UP Break as well as the heavy 1,833-28 range congestion at some point. That said, there is still plenty of resistance above the market into the 1,865-68 range and the 1,877 Negated major daily Rectangle UP Break (from just prior to that post-US Employment report failure.)
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of Monday’s light trading and today’s mixed overnight data, including stronger than expected Australian and Japanese Leading Indicators being countered by weaker than expected Euro-zone Construction Output. We now await US Existing Home Sales and Richmond Fed Index along with the Euro-zone Consumer Confidence.
It moves on from that overview to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 01:20 and intermediate-term at 03:45, then the other equities from 05:40, with govvies analysis beginning at 09:10 and short money forwards at 13:00. Foreign exchange begins with the US Dollar Index at 17:00, jumping over to Europe at 18:40 and Asia at 21:10, followed by the cross rates at 24:40, and a return to June S&P 500 future at 29:00 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
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2014/04/23: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/04/23: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, April 23, 2014 (early)
The extended implications of last Tuesday’s June S&P 500 future recovery back above 1,833-1,828 range confirmed that while the equities may still have topped, there is a bear squeeze in progress that is entitled to carry up to higher resistances for now. Further ‘good’ US economic data has probably helped change the tone in the face of mixed data elsewhere and geopolitical tensions in eastern Ukraine. And the other headline factor which might be affecting the psychology is the quarterly earnings reporting season being in full swing.
The tendency across many quarters since the US passed the Sarbanes-Oxley rules has been for corporate executives to under promise and then outperform. As opposed to the Dot.Com Boom’s ‘puffy’ earnings predictions that often disappointed, it has been just the opposite for years now… and the first quarter reports are no different. The many factors which had been used as cautionary indications (weather, geopolitical stresses, the sustained weakness in France seen again in today’s Advance PMI’s, etc.) have typically been overcome to produce upbeat actual earnings.
Of course, this is constructive for stock markets and weighing a bit on government bonds. However, continued pressure on US consumers noted previous from higher taxes, higher healthcare insurance costs, energy prices remaining high, etc. might still be the combined factors which weigh on the US economy right into this quarter. Yet for now the earnings reports are a bit better than expected. And that is in spite of not getting as much help as previous from other quarters, like China and Europe.
As the June S&P 500 future was up further early this week, the burden of proof is definitely back on the bears to get it to fail back below last Wednesday’s 1,840 UP Break as well as the heavy 1,833-28 range congestion at some point. That said, there was still plenty of resistance above the market into the 1,865-68 range (now critical short-term support until it fails again) and the 1,877 Negated major daily Rectangle UP Break tested yesterday.
The video timeline begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of yesterday’s firm US data, and the weak overnight data out of Asia, Europe and the UK. We now await Canadian Retail Sales and US Advance Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales (the natural complement to yesterday’s weakish Existing Home Sales.)
It moves on from there to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate-term at 04:20 including the important pattern and trend implications of last week’s strength extending into yesterday, the other equities at 06:20 and mention of the govvies at 07:10, short money forwards at 07:30, and discussion of foreign exchange also remaining much more subdued than other asset classes at 07:40. The only two currencies worth a look are the weakness in both AUD/USD at 08:00 and USD/JPY at 08:45, with a return to the June S&P 500 future at 09:35 for a final view and additional perspective.
[The Weekly Report & Event Calendar and Current Rohr Technical Projections - Key Levels & Select Comments are available via the link in the sidebar]
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update
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