2014/06/10: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)

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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Tuesday, June 10, 2014 (early)

Global View: All Markets  

Well, the “Mind the gap” advice on the upside Runaway Gap two weeks ago not only fulfilled its potential, it exceeded it. And this revisits the question of what to do with markets that outperform minimum Objectives like the June S&P 500 future 1,938 level from that Runaway Gap back in the 1,900 area. While we will review more of that in the technical discussion, suffice to say for now that it is a sign of strength. It requires the bears in this case to ge the market back below 1,938 on at least a daily Close to weaken the otherwise strong technical tone. The weekly oscillator level at 1,945 is equally as important in the near term, and we will revisit that as well below.

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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above plus mentioning the only remaining economic reports worth watching today are US JOLTS and Wholesale Inventories and Sales.

It moves on to the June S&P 500 future short-term trend view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:30, then the other equities from 06:15, with govvies analysis beginning at 10:00 and short money forwards at 15:40. Foreign exchange begins with the US Dollar Index at 19:15, jumping over to Europe at 21:15 and Asia at 23:55, followed the cross rates at 27:15 (with an expanded EUR/GBP weekly chart to review the critical nature of .8150), and a return to June S&P 500 future at 31:00 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.

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For now it is as important to review the ‘macro’ factors feeding the re-acceleration of what had become a rather grudging bull trend into a dynamic rally once again. First of is the major assist from the ECB. While it was well anticipated, the European Central Bank’s fractional rate cut to 0.15%, and especially the Deposit Facility Rate submersion from 0.00% to -0.10% was a real driver for a more aggressive accommodation from what had been the last QE-style stimulus holdout until last year.

Of course, it is not just about lower or negative rates. The creative structure of the latest ECB stimulus program seems enlightened. Given the differences of its multinational composition compared with other major central banks, this was a requirement. In the first instance there is no single national government bond market, and in any event major purchases of those bonds would fly in the face of the rightful Teutonic proscription of ‘monetary financing’ of government debt. And in the second case, the problem is not with rates that are generally too high, but rather with encouraging lending to the corporate sector; especially in the still weak economies on the periphery of the Euro-zone.

Anyone requiring more detail on those programs should access our earlier Thursday “Commentary: Draghi forceful… market response predictably erratic” post. We review the press conference discussion of both the new TLTRO (‘Targeted’ Long term Refinancing Operation) and the very sensible guidelines for development of a far more robust ABS (Asset Backed Securities) market in Europe.

And the important market aspect was the degree to which they still confirmed to predictable price swing expectations in spite of the high volatility in the wake of such a radical central bank program shift. The equities, govvies and even the foreign exchange exhibited activity around their key technical levels which was volatile, yet fully consistent with current trends. 

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more…’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers Click ‘Read more…’ to access the balance of the opening discussion.

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2014/06/05: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (late)

© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.

The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers

TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, June 5, 2014 (late)

Global View: All Markets

Well, the “Mind the gap” advice on the upside Runaway Gap at the beginning of last week finally fulfilled its potential thanks to a major assist from the ECB. While it was well anticipated, the European Central Bank’s fractional rate cut to 0.15%, and especially the Deposit Facility Rate submersion from 0.00% to -0.10% was a real driver for a more aggressive accommodation from what had been the last QE-style stimulus holdout until last year.

Of course, it is not just about lower or negative rates. The creative structure of the latest ECB stimulus program seems enlightened. Given the major differences of its multinational composition compared with other major central banks, this was a requirement. In the first instance there is no single national government bond market, and in any event major purchases of those bonds would fly in the face of the rightful Teutonic proscription of ‘monetary financing’ of government debt. And in the second case, the problem is not with rates that are generally too high, but rather with encouraging lending to the corporate sector; especially in the still weak economies on the periphery of the Euro-zone.

Anyone requiring more detail on those programs should access our earlier Thursday “Commentary: Draghi forceful… market response predictably erratic” post. We review the press conference discussion of both the new TLTRO (‘Targeted’ Long term Refinancing Operation) and the very sensible guidelines for development of a far more robust ABS (Asset Backed Securities) market in Europe.

And the important market aspect was the degree to which they still conformed to predictable price swing expectations in spite of the high volatility in the wake of such a radical central bank program shift. The equities, govvies and even the foreign exchange exhibited activity around their key technical levels which was volatile, yet fully consistent with current trends.  

Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more...’ to access TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers Click ‘Read more...’ to access the balance of the opening discussion.

Read more...