2014/06/25: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Wednesday, June 25, 2014 (early)
Concise Highlights
Well, as we had cautioned might be the case, FED-phoria and other confidence in central banks’ accommodative approach right now might not be enough to overcome the sort of problems which those central bank efforts do not address. And along with another somewhat hawkish (and not at all surprising) missive from the Fed’s Plosser, the geopolitical situation came back to haunt the equities. The specific worry that impacted the equities was the apparent lack of any reasonable expectation the situation in Iraq can be resolved by the formation of the ‘unity government’ the US and West so strongly desire. That is more than just a political aspect, as failure has the ability to affect energy prices as well. For more on how that combines with other influences see our “Is the S&P 500 Psych TOO Bullish” post from Friday. Even so, with all of that central bank psychology underpinning the equities, it is likely they do indeed attract buying on this initial setback to key overrun resistances.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above plus mention of the relatively strong economic data that now includes a bit better readings from Europe this morning. At the time of the recording the US GDP revision, Durable Goods Orders and Advance Services PMI were still pending.
It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 04:35, then mention of the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:10, with the GOVVIES beginning at 09:50 (and mention of the SHORT MONEY FORWARDS being bid up a bit as well.) FOREIGN EXCHANGE also only includes the mention of the US DOLLAR INDEX and its relationship to other currencies at 15:15, moving on to the CROSS RATES with a mention of EUR/GBP at 16:20, with a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 16:35 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ to access the balance of opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/06/26: Commentary: Humpty Iraqi had a great fall
Commentary: Humpty Iraqi had a great fall
Doesn’t look like he’ll be back
up on that wall anytime soon
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
All the king’s horses and all the king’s men are not going to be able to put Humpty back together again. Truth to tell, none of the king's men have any incentive to rescue the now failing state. The ardent admonitions and cajoling by President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry on the need for a ‘unity’ government are as significantly misguided as the entire premature US withdrawal from Iraq because it suited the American administration’s agenda. Unity? What unity is that? It leads one to believe that Mr. Obama and his minions never understood the historic context or real nature of the challenge in attempting to foster a multi-ethnic democratic society in the previous dictatorship. And while those historic lines go back a long, long way, they now have a near term impact on the markets. While that especially means energy, the full impact extends into other aspects as well. For more on all that please see last Friday’s Commentary post “Is the S&P 500 Psych TOO Bullish?” and our Conclusion today. And now what…?
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Video: There is no fresh video analysis this morning because all tendencies and technical trend levels remain very much the same as Wednesday morning’s Concise Highlights TrendVIew video for equities and govvies, and as Monday’s Global View TrendVIew video the still quietly churning foreign exchange. That includes Tuesday’s September S&P 500 future 1,953-55 DOWN CPR and other resistance, and the key resistance around Wednesday’s highs in the govvies.
On the macro (i.e. fundamental influences) front it is also a very limited economic release day, and the major overnight influence was BoE Governor Carney’s speech at the Financial Stability Report release press conference. As that was highly focused on measures to cool the housing market, it did nothing to further clarify the Bank’s position on interest rate increases. That left only US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income & Spending and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity index prior to the start of the heavier end of month data releases Friday into Monday. _____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers Click ‘Read more…’ to access the balance of the Commentary and Conclusion. Silver and Sterling Subscribers Click ‘Read more…’ to access the balance of the Commentary discussion.
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