2014/07/10: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, July 10, 2014 (early)
Global View: All Markets
Even with the mixed international and weakish US economic data earlier last week prior to the US Employment report, US equities felt it was time to violate near term topping activity to put in another upside rally extension. It was most interesting that this was followed by the post-US Employment report gap higher in spite weakish Thursday morning Services PMI’s everywhere from Asia right through Europe. As noted previous, that raised a classical question: Are the equities back in a bad news is good news psychology?
That would have been a fairly reasonable psychology with most central banks (except the BoE) still in a very accommodative mood. As we have been articulating for some time, the US had been the outlier upside leader. And yet the suspiciously weak September S&P 500 future opening back below the key 1,975 level (top of the major weekly channel) on Monday left it more influenced by the weaker sisters again. And the weakness in Europe became more palpable on the drop back to recent key lows in the DAX and FTSE into Wednesday. Now that Europe has broken those supports (in fact put in fresh DOWN Breaks) on all manner of weak data abetted by renewed European banking concerns, we revisit our observation since early this week: might ‘bad news’ actually be, well, bad news.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above plus the continued weak data out of both Asia and especially Europe since Monday right into this morning. That included Tuesday’s surprise on a weaker than expected NFIB Small Business Confidence Survey and especially very weak Chinese Export figures as part of a stale Trade Balance. With not much other than US Wholesale Inventories and Sales today (and nothing at all tomorrow), there just isn’t any potentially more upbeat US focus to offset the rot from, well, pretty much everywhere else.
It moves to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:00 and intermediate term at 04:55, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:10, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 10:50 (with an expanded BUND future weekly chart to review the critical nature of the low-mid 148.00 area) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 16:50. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 21:40, jumping over to EUROPE at 23:15 and ASIA at 24:30, followed the CROSS RATES at 28:30 (with an expanded EUR/GBP weekly chart to review the critical nature of .8000-.7950), and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 33:00 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the extensive trend evolution since the start of this week, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/07/11: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/07/11: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, July 11, 2014 (early)
Last week’s weakish international and US economic data prior to the US Employment report didn’t seem to matter to the US equities that pushed to the new highs. Yet as we had noted for weeks, the US was the outlier upside leader in a major, with even Europe lagging due to serial weak data also apparent in Asia. That US equities strength had once again raised the classical question, “Are the equities back in a ‘bad news is good news’ psychology?”
That would have been a fairly reasonable psychology with most central banks (except the BoE) still in a very accommodative mood. As we have been articulating for some time, the US had been the outlier upside leader. And yet the suspiciously weak September S&P 500 future opening back below the key 1,975 level (top of the major weekly channel) on Monday left it more influenced by the weaker sisters again. And the weakness in Europe became more palpable on the drop back to recent key lows in the DAX and FTSE into Wednesday. Now that Europe has broken those supports (in fact put in fresh DOWN Breaks) on all manner of weak data abetted by renewed European banking concerns, we revisit our observation since early this week: might ‘bad news’ actually be, well, bad news.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above plus the continued weak data out of both Asia and especially Europe since Monday right into this morning. That included Thursday’s especially weak Chinese Export figures as part of a stale Trade Balance. In the event US Wholesale Sales were also weak yesterday, and there just isn’t any potentially more upbeat US focus to offset the rot from, well, pretty much everywhere else. The only other data today is the Canadian Employment figures that were delayed from their typical end of first week release by last week’s Canada Day holiday.
It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:05 and intermediate term at 05:10, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:00, with only mention of GOVVIES 10:35 (as all of that and the other markets are much the same as Thursday morning’s Global View TrendView Video analysis) and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS and also FOREIGN EXCHANGE. It ends with a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 11:45 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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