2014/07/17: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, July 17, 2014 (early)
Concise Highlights
Last week’s weakish international and US economic data only brought a fairly modest reaction in the outlier upside leader US equities, even with Europe lagging due to serial weak data also apparent in Asia. And while that US equities resilience once again raised the classical question, “Are the equities back in a ‘bad news is good news’ psychology?” there was the weakness leading to DOWN Breakouts in Europe that continues to mitigate the US strength. This Monday’s push up toward last week’s September S&P 500 future top of the week 1,977.60-1,974.80 gap lower seemed a bit of constructive interpretation of some corporate earnings releases, and also maintained on the anticipation and the fact of the well-telegraphed indication from Janet Yellen that she would remain very dovish in her two-day semi-annual Congressional testimony (with Q&A.)
That was the case, and the equities duly held up through yesterday. Yet the question also remained whether that was indeed just the ‘Yellen Factor’, and the weakness into this morning’s pre-Regular Trading Hours activity would seem to vindicate our view equities could weaken on the reasons for the Fed remaining accommodative once she was done.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors noted above plus the mixed-to-weak data out of both Asia and especially Europe. Previous weak German and Euro-zone ZEW Surveys and Euro-zone Trade Balance was followed by weak Construction Output figure today. It is interesting that since the video recording US Housing Starts also came out quite weak as we await the Philadelphia Fed.
It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 01:50 and intermediate term at 04:10, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 05:20, with GOVVIES from 09:40 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 15:30. It continues with FOREIGN EXCHANGE beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 18:50, yet with only mention of the other currencies (which were so heavily reviewed in Wednesday’s Concise Highlight TrendView Video) prior to returning to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 19:50 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/07/18: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
2014/07/18: TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, July 18, 2014 (early)
First of all, it is no joy that the success of our negative view of the equities and associated analysis in other asset classes is being abated and accelerated by the tragic event in Ukraine and geopolitical disruption elsewhere. Our sympathy goes out to all of the affected folks and their families. Yet this also points up the degree to which market participants have not taken the potential risks inherent in multiple unstable geopolitical developments quite as serious as they should have. We do not typically indulge in partisan expression reserved for our Commentary posts in market analysis. Yet rather than bring a more cooperative global environment, the lack of US leadership has predictably brought the influence of more pernicious actors to the fore. The US administration’s inability to appreciate and anticipate the potential for this is now disturbing to markets as well. Even one fairly centrist observer has noted that there is now an ‘arch of instability’ across the globe.
The classical question, “Are the equities back in a ‘bad news is good news’ psychology?” was already not faring well in the wake of serial soft European economic data. That led to DOWN Breakouts in European equities mitigating US strength. This Monday’s push up toward last week’s September S&P 500 future top of the week 1,977.60-1,974.80 gap lower seemed anticipation that Janet Yellen would remain very dovish in her semi-annual Congressional testimony (with Q&A.) That was the case, and the equities duly held up through Wednesday. Yet they were already under pressure on the lapsing of the ‘Yellen Factor’ Thursday morning even prior to events driving the extended selloff. And the violation of the 1,960 support has now led to the test of the more prominent 1,950 area.
_____________________________________________________________
Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of the factors noted above plus the weakness of Thursday’s US Housing Starts data, with today’s Asian data being mixed into a weak Euro-zone Current Account. It also notes the only remaining economic data today is US Michigan Sentiment and Leading Indicators.
It moves on to the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term trend view at 02:05 and intermediate term at 05:27, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 06:40, with GOVVIES from 11:20 and only mention of the steady SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 18:30. It continues with FOREIGN EXCHANGE beginning with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 19:00, yet with only mention of the other currencies (which were so heavily reviewed in Wednesday’s Concise Highlight TrendView Video) prior to shifting to the CROSS RATES at 21:00, and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 26:20 for a final view and additional perspective. We suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
_____________________________________________________________
Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
Read more...