2014/07/24: TrendView VIDEO: Broad Perspective: S&P 500 Rally
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Thursday, July 24, 2014 (early)
Broad Perspective: S&P 500 Rally
In spite of the Ukraine-Russia problems and geopolitical disruption elsewhere, the equities recovery this week is interesting. It illustrates the degree to which anything less than economically disruptive influences are not capable of weighing on the equities right now. While Russia is condemned in opinion, the lack of any more European sanctions this week maintains a ‘steady’ economic perspective. Especially in the context of positive corporate earnings once again, the September S&P 500 future has been able to shake off the multiple geopolitical drags on market psychology. That doesn’t mean those might not come back to bother the equities at any time. Equity market participants have possibly still not taken the potential risks inherent in multiple unstable geopolitical developments quite as seriously as they should. Yet the lack of US leadership encouraging less constructive actors to further their agendas has not yet reached to point where investors and portfolio managers feel it will affect the corporate earnings that are always the ultimate driver of equities psychology.
What is there to say about a market (referring specifically to the September S&P 500 future) that is stalled up against the topping line of its major channel on all the recent minor new rally highs, yet refuses to sustain any meaningful break below lower support? In that regard it seems that some broader perspective might be in order. This is also consistent with the request from my friends at FUTURES magazine this week to provide a brief comment for their multi-analyst online article #1 Lessons from the Pros. My observation was “Not to decide is to decide” …as in understanding the broader context of a trend provides the patience necessary to wait for meaningful indications from the from the markets prior to drawing conclusions (extended version of that insight below.)
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some factors noted above and the continued weak data out of both Asia and even the UK Retail Sales this morning. Yet Europe offset that with some very upbeat Advance PMI’s, which were followed after the recording was completed by lower than expected US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. We now await US Existing Home Sales and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index.
It moves on to only the SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE long-term trend view in the form of the weekly chart and indicators at 01:45, with mention of the weakness of the GOVVIES in the face of sustained equities strength, and mostly steady situation in the FOREIGN EXCHANGE since the major review in Tuesday’s Global View TrendView Video.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and Brief Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
2014/07/25: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
2014/07/25: TrendView VIDEO: Global View (early)
© 2014 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
The analysis videos are reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, July 25, 2014 (early)
In spite of the Ukraine-Russia problems and geopolitical disruption elsewhere, the equities recovery Friday into this week is interesting. It illustrates the degree to which equity market participants have possibly still not taken the potential risks inherent in multiple unstable geopolitical developments quite as seriously as they should. We do not typically indulge in partisan expression reserved for our Commentary posts in market analysis. Yet rather than bring a more cooperative global environment, the lack of US leadership predictably encourages less constructive actors to further their agendas. And the other interesting aspect is the degree to which upbeat corporate earnings are significantly offsetting the geopolitical concerns and continued weak economic data (in spite of a few bright spots.)
The classical question, “Are the equities back in a ‘bad news is good news’ psychology?” was already not faring well in the wake of serial soft European economic data. That was interrupted momentarily by better-than-expected Euro-zone Advance PMI’s Thursday, yet reverted to weakness in both the US and elsewhere since then. The bottom line is that developed economy central banks other than the ECB are getting out of the QE business. So the accelerated ‘bad news is good news’ psychology which has been apparent ever since Ben Bernanke instituted QE3. Note that the much weaker-than-expected earnings announcement from Amazon has indeed weighed on the equities. Once earnings season is over the markets are likely to be more directly ‘data driven’ once again as well.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) discussion of some of the factors noted above and the continued weak data out of both Asia even the US yesterday that included very weak New Home Sales into this morning’s German IFO downside miss. It notes the pending US Durable Goods Orders as the last data this week.
It moves to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 05:30, then the OTHER EQUITIES from 07:15, with GOVVIES analysis beginning at 11:40 and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS at 15:10. FOREIGN EXCHANGE begins with the US DOLLAR INDEX at 20:00, jumping over to EUROPE at 22:15 and ASIA at 25:10, followed the CROSS RATES at 27:40 (with an expanded EUR/GBP weekly chart to review the critical nature of .8000-.7950 support Tolerance at .7923), and a return to SEPTEMBER S&P 500 FUTURE at 32:10 for a final view and additional perspective. As this is an especially extensive analysis due to the return to a Global View, even more so than usual we suggest using the timeline cursor to access the analysis most relevant for you.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
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