2017/03/12 WEEKEND: Hawkish Draghi? & Bull Age
© 2017 ROHR International, Inc. All International rights reserved.
Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
WEEKEND: Sunday, March 12, 2017
Hawkish Draghi? & Bull Age
After watching every bit of the ECB press conference we were a little surprised to hear the collective response from quite a few analysts and the financial fourth estate that the ECB was now quite a bit more ‘hawkish’ overall. It must be allowed that Mario Draghi was indeed a bit less dovish, but hawkish? Of course, a good deal of that was the sense that the ECB is moving on from its most accommodative positions, which included its shift away from keeping its very most aggressive tools on the table in the current environment. Yet as we review below, the degree to which that amounts to a shift to a really hawkish stance is specious at best. And thanks to Zero Hedge blog for the interesting graphic’s play on trigger happy ‘Dirty Harry’.
Before we get back to a concise dissection of just what and what was not said at the ECB press conference, and the ‘street’ interpretation, we revisit another matter on which we have opined recently: the ‘age’ of the current equities bull market. That is of course relevant in the context of the folks who measure how much longer a bull market has to run based in part on how long it has already been trending higher.
As we noted in the March 2nd Commentary: Trumponomics & Kool-Aid Coda and previous, “…those who are using any classical calendar assessment of how ‘old’ this bull market might be are significantly misguided. Talk of it being in its eighth year, meaning it cannot continue much longer, fails to take a key influence into account…” That was of course the ‘Fed Factor’. This is degree to which the equities were able to avoid any setback since Ben Bernanke’s 2012 institution of QE-3. Now there is another perspective on that.
In a Bloomberg column on Friday the estimable Barry Ritholtz opined on This Bull Market Isn't as Old as Some Seem to Think. It is a very interesting column which allows there are quite a few different ways to view this. However, he chooses to fall back on a classic definition of a bull trend: it is only confirmed once a new cyclical high is established. This means the age of the current US equities bull can only considered since the May 2013 front month S&P 500 future new high above the 1,586.75 October 2007 high. So just short of four years at present, with quite an interesting discussion on all that.
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.