2017/06/01 Commentary: Paris Pullout ‘Trumps’ Tweets
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Commentary: Thursday, June 1, 2017
Paris Pullout ‘Trumps’ Tweets
Tweets-In. Paris-Out. Yes indeed, as we expected the US President could not resist extensive tweeting once again almost immediately upon return from his first major foreign trip to the Middle East and Europe. As noted in Tuesday morning’s Commentary: Still Happy and Friendly? post, the Fed is likely to remain ‘friendly’ within somewhat weaker than expected economic data into the early second quarter (at least until Thursday’s over the top ADP Employment data.) However, the ‘happy’ hysterical headline hiatus that saw the President’s detractors in a lower key mode while he was away on his trip was over. And this was on both a somewhat reasonable level of the renewed Presidential tweets regarding son-in-law Jared Kushner becoming involved in yet another Russian contact investigation, and the irrational level of a partial tweet which was obviously incoherent and once again caused some distraction. While we are going to review each of those below, it is important to note that the President’s Twitter activity has been superseded by his more substantial policy move today: Pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement on greenhouse gas emissions. There is a lot of argument on both sides why this was either the right or wrong thing to do. That said, the real point is the market response in what was a fraught environment due to the President returning to Twitter: US equities decided that the US leaving the Paris accord (never ratified as a treaty) was a good thing.
There is some basis for that in lower burdens on US corporations, which will also likely be more profitable due to less need to heed more restrictive environmental standards. It is of concern that this will not be as friendly for the global environment we all share. Yet there is also part of the Paris Agreement which Trump rightfully criticized: It was yet another example of a ‘bad’ Barack Obama ‘deal’. Obama was legend for completing deals whether or not they made any sense. The poster child for that was the Paris Agreement…
Authorized Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. As this is a ‘macro’ assessment, Market Observations remain the same as Wednesday morning’s update (lower section) of Tuesday morning’s Commentary: Still Happy and Friendly? post, and there is no Extended Trend Assessment in this post.
2017/06/07 Commentary: Self-Inflicted Wounds are Back
2017/06/07 Commentary: Self-Inflicted Wounds are Back
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Extended Trend Assessments reserved for Gold and Platinum Subscribers
Commentary: Wednesday, June 7, 2017
Self-Inflicted Wounds are Back
And while some of them do not relate directly to the administration’s legislative agenda, they are damaging for several reasons. The first is the time it takes from administration officials to explain or defend them in addition the burden on Congressmen who are asked to comment. All of that also amounts to diminishing the standing of the President at a time when his leadership is ever more essential to shepherd his various programs through Congress. And it goes beyond that…
…as the serial nature of some of his Twitter missteps (and others) bring into question his ability to comprehend how Washington DC works, and it is not adapting to his unorthodox style. The opening graphic on the TRAVEL BAN is a case in point. The early Monday tweets reasserted the President’s real feelings, and most observers on both the Right and Left say they will significantly hurt chances the ban will be found constitutional even at a now Right leaning Supreme Court. And the problem goes way beyond just that simple phrase, as it was the first (06:25 EDT Monday morning) of four tweets that all compounded that initial misstep, as we will review at some length below.
Yet all of that said, and even in the context of the extended negative implications explored below, the US equities do not seem to care at present. The previous hiccups in the bull trend seen after Trump missteps are lacking at present. As was covered at length in last Thursday’s Paris Pullout ‘Trumps’ Tweets post, it seems the equities are happy to react constructively to the lower regulatory burdens (of which the Paris Agreement was a major one), and anticipate somehow the Trump reform and stimulus agenda will become law. And therein is the reason for equities divergence against the govvies and US dollar..,
Authorized Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion. Non-subscribers click the top menu Subscription Echelons & Fees tab to review your options. Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to also access the Extended Trend Assessment as well.
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