Recorded November 11, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Equities celebrate 'good news is good news' again. (Follow up on immediate previous November 8th post.) In the event the strong US Employment report was constructive, and NOT a 'QE taper' fear-driver some had expected. In anticipation of Thursday's hearing on Dr. Yellen's appointment as next Fed Head, equities reverted to strength, and govvies were not bad either.
Recorded November 8, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Equities in critical position early Friday morning in front of the key US Employment report. What was somewhat disconcerting was the dip after Thursday's surprise ECB rate cut that left December S&P 500 futureon a 1,747.50 short term Double Top DOWN Break (see below.) This classical setup is discussed at length, and it is always a matter of follow through. And in the event the strong US report rescued the equities market and clobbered the debt markets.
Recorded October 16, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Equities celebrate as Tuesday afternoon House GOP threat to float bill that would undermine agreement to re-open US government fizzles. The technical trend implications were obvious in the overnight recovery that put the December S&P 500 future more decisively above 1,695 and 1,706 (video tech from 03:10.) That pointed to likely push to 1,730-35 oscillator and topping line resistance. And while Euro-govvies were weaker, December T-note future held important 125-21 support on economic erosion of the shutdown as US dollar weakened as well.
Recorded October 8, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Why and How the December S&P 500 future continued under pressure in spite of strong expectations the US government shutdown could not last more than a few days... ...well it did!! It even reached the point where some knowledgeable people were passingly concerned about a possible Debt Ceiling violation. And the indicators remained bearish on each rally since failing from the October 1st unusually strong activity on the initial US shutdown (see below)... including the failure from 1,685. Yet even the extended selloff was nearing key supports at 1,643 and the 1,630-25 area... and the prospect was that once the crisis passed the equities were primed for a rebound to pre-crisis levels... or even higher. It only made sense.
Recorded October 1, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Shutdown Rally!! The December S&P 500 future pushes UP(?!) on the first day of the US government shutdown. Yet that is on combined specious psychologies around how quickly it will likely be addressed, and some help from top of quarter investment inflows. However, the rally was only back up to the Exhaustion Gap (i.e. failed UP Runaway Gap) areas in the mid-1,680s to mid-1,690s. Unless 1,695 is overrun, the US equities remain vulnerable in spite of this odd initial response. All the rest is still consistent with Govvies rallying on the US budget worries and the US Dollar Index still weak in the .8000 area as other currencies remain bid against it.
Recorded September 19, 2013 for ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Yet another Global View that begins by asking whether the FOMC 'no taper' decision was enlightened? Only time will tell, but markets do not care about that. There was an immediate upside surge in the Equities AND Govvies due to the dual continued QE benefits. Yet it was most interesting that only took the December S&P 500 future up into the 1,725-30 extended oscillator resistance we had projected for any strong rally (even if we did not predict the 'no taper' decision.) The T-note pushed up toward the 126-00 area again in spite setting a new lead contract low in the 122-00 area only two weeks earlier. And the US Dollar Index finally hit .8000 as EUR/USD pushed out of the 1.3300-50 area to above 1.3500 next resistance.
Recorded September 6, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Global View begins with the expected recovery of the September S&P 500 future to the 1,670 area, yet moves on into the even more critical aspects of the primary government bond futures expiration rollover implications. While the govvies weakened again in the wake of the equities strength, it had different dimensions in individual centers. The T-note was into a minor new low, yet back into oscillator support after having been so weak in mid-June. However, the December Bund future full two point discount to the expiring lead contract September (as discussed prevoius) was indeed a major problem. It caused the failure below the 140 area to turn into a major debacle into that projected 136.50 support. That's a huge move for the Bund.
Recorded August 30, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Global View yet with focal point for other asset class trends in the September S&P 500 future as well. And its holding action into the 1,630-25 area is impressive after a several day test. That speaks of its ability to likely resume the up trend, and likely retest higher 1,650 or 1,670 area resistances or even set a new high for the rally. While the T-note has held 124-16, the major December Bund future discount (a full two points) to lead contract September is a major problem for what had been the strong sister when the T-note imploded in mid-June. Even though US Dollar Index strengthening, it is only up near .8200-50 resistance.
Recorded August 15, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Global View as the September S&P 500 future gap lower after s.t. trend indicators remained weak on most recent selloff to 1,680 area... and that gap lower was also 1,670 DOWN Acceleration out of the nominal current down trend. And while the 1,650-48 range is interesting interim support, this is classically the sort of thing that often foments full corrections. In this case that means a likely return to the 1,630-25 area to retest that 1,628 Negated (post-FOMC meeting) mid-June channel DOWN Break. The T-note failure below 126-00 points to support in the 124-16 area, and US dollar weakening as EUR/USD extends rally above 1.31 up to 1.3300-50 (as expected), which is consistent with other currencies' activity.
Recorded August 6, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Global View as the September S&P 500 future appears toppier than the QE environment might have suggested, except for one small factor: Good News. So this was a typical prismatic central bank influence 'good news is bad news' response to strong data from Asia right across into the US. So after it had generally reached our extension Objective in the low 1,700 area, it was using this as an excuse to react back down. All of that left 1,700 as resistance, which reinforced firmness in both the govvies and the other currencies against the US dollar.
Recorded July 12, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
The After-Market Gap. The September S&P 500 future gap higher after the US Close on September 10th was based in part on the FOMC minutes confirming there was no 'calendar' for QE tapering, just as everyone at the Fed had noted after the very negative quities response to that meeting. Yet more important to the gap higher on July 11th was Mr. Bernanke's speech and Q&A on the 10th, where he was adamant about there being no preset schedule for QE tapering. And that left the market pinned against 1,666-73 resistance and feeling strong. As we noted, the oscillator projection signalled 1,710 could be hit if it continued higher. Note how quickly S&P 500 strengtened after overrunning the 1,628 area noted in the previous example.
Recorded July 8, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
An Intermarket View. Recall that September S&P 500 future 1,628 weekly channel DOWN Break after the seeming FOMC reinforcement for the QE taper psychology? Well, the minions at the Fed (hawks included) were very effective at 'walking back' that perception into early July. And here was another great case of perverse prismatic market activity, as the S&P 500 future improved on the deteriorating data due to the QE psych. The gap back above the 1,628 area was telling... and led to the extended recovery. Also picked up on T-note possibly ready to bottom after recent pressure, and the euro potential to rally from the EUR/USD 1.28 area.
Recorded June 19, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Another Wild Wednesday!! And this one is no accident, as the FOMC communication seems clear that QE tapering is going to begin in the Fall. That was refuted later by everyone at the Fed, but in the near term the carnage was immpressive as the September S&P 500 future sank from 1,647 to 1,623 on the day. Yet that was just the beginning of the stale psychology spilling over into a gap through 1,628 weekly up channel support on a fresh DOWN Break. That area would return as a recurring important techncial area after the market bottomed into 1,654. All of that was aided and abetted by the even greater damage to the T-note.
Recorded June 6, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
Viva Volatility!! Mirror image of May 22nd DOWN CPR topping activity. After full spill from Bernanke JEC testimony, the June S&P 500 future is back at the 1,606-1,594 original early May UP Runaway Gap... a likely excellent support reinforced by early May pre-Gap congestion and Fibonacci retracements as well. In the event, it needed to sink to 1,597 prior to an afternoon recovery that was aggressive enough to signal a near term bottom. While it felt a long way off from the 1,600 area, this sets up the retest of the 1,650s. We review how that is reinforced by 'revisit the high' after a break historic tendencies, even when it is topping overall.
Recorded May 22, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
"Mind the Gap" ...again. As the first time up to the early May UP Runaway Gap 1,669 Objective stalls the June S&P 500 future after overrunning it temporarily. The cause for the extension of the rally is the same as the subsequent capitulation later today: Fed Chairman Bernanke's Joint Economic Committee prepared statement and testimony. The former was very upbeat on continued QE, yet during the latter we heard the first mention of the possible Fall QE tapering. Thus the 1,662-69 DOWN Closing Price Reversal daily/weekly was formed that developed into the overall QE taper selloff into late June after the FOMC meeting influence as well.
Recorded May 3, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
"Mind the Gap." That regular announcement on the London Tube is also relevant to some market situations. Like when a gap in either direction is a new low or high for the current trend, as was the case for the June S&P 500 future in the wake of the early May US (April) Employment report. In this case the psychological aspect of cleanly jumping above a major even number like 1,600 is accompanied by other key technical insights and discussion of 'macro' (i.e. fundamental) influences. In addition to the short-term trend impact, the very critical intermediate-term implications on the weekly and daily charts is explored as well.
Recorded April 26, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
By Wednesday, April 24th US equitites had fully recovered from the Boston Marathon bombings and weak economic data. That was apparent in the rally from the previous week's 1,531 low carrying back above the 1,568 early April high. Because the rally turned quiet that afternoon, the 1,575 DOWN Break below the up channel was not convincing and was quickly reversed on Thursday's opening. It also acted as support on the Friday selloff, which is a classic tendency.
Recorded April 23, 2013 for CME Open Markets Market Update Link: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/5641/market-update-volatility-in-equities
Alan Rohrbach of Rohr International checks in again with Jack to discuss what’s happening with equity futures. Volatility driven by economic data and the tragic events of the past two weeks has been the story, and they discuss what that means for equity markets... especially the key repeated tests of 1,532 by June S&P 500 future with the US economy/market still the leader.
Recorded April 18, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
By Thursday, April 18, 2013 US equitites had suffered the full impact of the disarray from both the Boston Marathon bombings and weaker than expected economic data (both US and especially elsewhere.) However, as has so often been the case in the extended US equities bull run since 2009, all of that only pressured the June S&P 500 future down to key support which left the burden of proof back on the bears into the weekly Close on Friday. This is also an important study of short technical indicator activity during aggressive trend swings.
Recorded April 15, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
On Monday, April 15, 2013 US equitites began somewhat weak in the wake of below estimate Chinese and US economic data. What might have been a modest reaction to retest recent June S&P 500 future congestion and other supports accelerated downward in stages throughout the day, culminating in the market reaction to the Boston Marathon bombings. Interesting in its way as the direct mirror image so soon after the accelerated upside swing the previous week.
Recorded April 12, 2013 for the ROHR Concise Macro-Technical Education Series.
During the second week of April 2013 the US equitites experienced a rather dramatic up trend extension in spite of some less than encouraging fundamental influences. While the European bourses lagged, the S&P 500 future was impervious to short term overbought conditions or minor negative signals. This is in part a review of how aggressive trends act under those circumstances, as key short term indicators provide clues on what to expect.
Recorded March 28, 2013 for CME Open Markets Market Update Link: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/5506/market-update-cyprus-and-the-end-of-q1
On the last trading day of the quarter, Jack talks with Alan Rohrbach of Rohr International about the situation in Cyprus, and to what level it is impacting markets. Rohrbach calls the Cyprus bailout “a terrible idea to tax, or in truth confiscate, parts of large depositors’ deposits. That sets a bad tone for banking.” Yet the impact on the global equities is very limited due to technical strength; and that technical trend context is reviewed as well.
Recorded February 27, 2013 for CME Open Markets Market Update Link: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/5319/market-update-whos-in-charge-in-italy
“The real guy in charge in Europe remains Mario Draghi, and the pressure he can put on any government to toe the line on reforms if they want their bond markets supported.” They also discuss what the patterns of the last few years tells us about today’s equity market activity.
Recorded January 9, 2013 for CME Open Markets Market Update Link: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/4804/market-update-with-guest-alan-rohrbach Alan Rohrbach lets Jack know that last week on the first trading day of the year the bulls made their case when huge gains in equities were posted. He says the fundamentals and psychology in the market are strong, and he explains why that’s been good for bullish equity market participants.
[Expanded discussion in our January 10, 2013 ...Equities Attempt a Jailbreak? post.]
Recorded November 28, 2012 for CME Open Markets Market Update Link: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/4804/market-update-with-guest-alan-rohrbach
Alan Rohrbach joins Jack today to help answer what happens to S&P 500 futures if we go off the fiscal cliff. And what if there’s a handshake by the end of the year between the President and Congress?
Recorded November 7, 2012 for CME Open Markets Market Update Link: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/4621/market-update-election-and-equities
Alan Rohrbach joins Jack today to discuss the quick negative response equities showed to yesterday’s election outcome. According to Rohrbach, “I think this has a lot to do with the anticipation, not just with the fiscal cliff, but with the whole more statist program.”